Marathon RR and pace question
I did the mara RR today. Did 6 miles at MP +:30 7:05-7:13). supposed to be 5 but a complicated intersection changed 1st MP mile into slower pace. Then did 9 hilly miles at MP 6:34-6:44 and finished with 4 miles at 6:27. Total 19 miles in 2:09:22 avg 6:48/mi. Felt pretty good. The MP pace work didn't feel too hard but the last 4 miles approaching Z3 went from ok at 2nd z3 mile to this is starting to hurt for last two miles. NYC marathon is in 5 weeks. VDOT says MP is 6:36 (2:52 pace) my PR is 2:56. I feel confident for sub 3 but I was thinking 6:45(2:57)pace and if I feel good at mile 18 slightly increase pace towards 6:40 and at 21 let it rip if I have anything left to rip. Any thoughts?
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Second, starting a little conservatively, say around 6:50 or so, for 6 miles is sensible (especially at NYC!). After that, sounds like you're on target to run your 6:36 pace. Don't sell yourself short. Just remember to not work too hard on the bridges.
According to Hansen and McMillan you should be in tune for that target pace (ie. based on their Fast Finish Long Runs as predictors)....agree with Mike- you see ready and let the bridges take some out of your pace (ie. climb like bike protocol...even effort not even pace)...don't look to do a big negative split...closer to even splitting with the second half slightly faster than the first.