RR/Race Plan, or How I Want to Break 5 Hours at Steelhead if the Weather is Good
Hey all-
I'm hoping for some sage advice. Last year, my "B" race was KS 70.3, and I pulled off a 5:08 in my second HIM distance race ever. I tapered and all, but the race was not my major focus and - while I thought I was training smart - it was certainly not using EN methods. A LOT less intensity... Anyway, that left me thinking that if I really, really focused, I might be able to break that big round number and finish another race in 4:59:XX. So Steelhead 70.3 is my race, and it's my A race for the year.
With that race now <2 weeks away, I wonder what you all think, now that it's time for the brass tacks to come out. In all honesty, I probably need good weather and a very good day, but here's how I would have to make it happen, I think:</p>
- 37 minute swim - Two HIM swims (2009) were 37 and 38 min. 1:18 at IM WI in 2009. Should be able to equal those paces, given test results. Maybe surpass by a minute or two if I'm lucky. This swim is "with the current" but the times don't look fast to me, so maybe the choppy water takes away what the current giveth. Swim workouts are going well.
- 3 min T1. I looked at the T1 times from last year and tried to judge against my normal position in T1s. This is a little fast, but a reasonable goal. It may even out with T2 estimates below.
- 2:40 Bike. This is a little aggressive. My first RR was almost exactly 2:45 on a comparably hilly course without aero helmet or wheels. At that time, I used a 180 W Gear 2 target, based on guessing a time of 2:45 (was right!) and 222 W FTP and an 80% target (rounding up by 2 W). That rehearsal went almost perfectly and I felt super-strong on the run. FTP is now up to 228, and I assume there will be 3-4 minutes gain from aero gear. (A helmet is supposed to be worth about a minute on a 40K, right? That makes this a little conservative.) That lets me go up to 186 W (gear 2) based on 81.5% of 228. My second race rehearsal was 6 days after the big IM WI rally, which I participated in, was 7000 feet higher than where I live, and included another net climb of 1000 ft (about 1500 total). I held the ~185 well on this ride, but have to admit that I was much more "ready to be done" at the end of it, i.e., the run was ok, but not super strong. I know the fatigue (I'm 46 and not a super fast recoverer) and altitude didn't help...it's just a matter of how much, and I'm gambling a little. I am encouraged by the fact that my FTP has been going UP slowly but surely during the 12 weeks.
- 3 min T2. I think this is very for me, based on previous times. I don't make a fuss at T2. May average out for total T1/T2 time of 6 min.
- That leaves 1:37 for the run. I ran 3:16:40 at the Boston marathon this year on almost perfectly even splits in good weather. I ran 1:38:xx at KS 70.3 last year off a 2:45 bike. Now, 1:37 is what I think it will take. My 5K VDOT now is a few seconds faster than when I tested it at the height of my marathon training (and MUCH better than last year), and my current MP predicts a sub 1:34 time. If i give back 1.5 min in the first three miles, but can hold 7:09s after, I make 1:36:XX.
Frankly, I also hope that the IM WI rally was timed just right. Running lore is that 3 weeks after a long run (+/- a few days) is its moment of greatest benefit. I trained hard right up to the WI rally, and that was 3 weeks to the day before Steelhead. (Lesson learned...I'm installing a new compact crank to go with my 12/25 any day now.)
Nutrition has been good on RRs. I have had 500 cal of Perpetuem on the bike and nothing on my runs. I'll obviously have access to more (gatorade or whatever) during the race, and certainly plan to get nutrition on the run.
So, am I nuts? Am I being too aggressive? This is my A race, and I want to give it my best shot without blowing myself up. I'm willing to go to dark places, but that only works for so long.
Thanks for any insights.
William
Comments
1. Last year, there was a bit of a cross-current (and, um, a small craft advisory) at Steelhead, so once everyone turned in to swim back to the shore, swimming was slow. They also count the run up the beach in the swim times. Those two things might account for the longer swim times. It is really easy to dally. If I have anything sage to say, it is book it up the beach and to your bike!
2. If they have it set up like last year, your transition is long, narrow rectangle. Your T1 time is something of a luck of the draw. The racks were also very close together, so there was a fair amount of congestion getting out of transition. Taking a few seconds to choose the clearest path out where you won't get stuck behind other people will surely save some time.
3. Yes, yes aero gear. There was the nastiest headwind on the last oh, twenty miles of the bike course. Demoralizing, awful headwinds that were having everyone come in with much longer than usual bike splits. Otherwise, fun bike course.
Thanks for the heads up! While I'm at it, is there any reason to check the bike in on the day before? It's so much more convenient (e.g., fill up tires at the car) to just bring the bike in on the day of the race. If they have assigned transition spots, then I'm not sure why you'd bring it in on Friday, but if it's first come first served in the transition area....
I think I actually made a note to rack my bike day-of if I did this race in the future. Parking is a little far out, so it would actually be nice to have it to ride to transition in the morning. Oh! Bring a head lamp or flashlight. The transition area is really dark race morning.
Three thoughts:
1. Aero helmet may be worth more than one minute - I found one year to the next on the same courses the aero helmet gained me 2-3% at all distances sprint thru IM.
2. When I try to compare HIM and Oly distance times for my "PR", i have started to drop the transition times, and just tried to best, say, 2:20 for the oly without transitions. Those runs from the beach and the #'s of bikes, etc can be so variable, and you have no control over it. So maybe set an additional goal to be 8+ minutes below your KS time, comparing only swim/bike/run total times.
3. Here is a recent discussion started (and ended) by Chris Whyte about HIM execution. My own best HIM performances have come from pushing the bike a little bit, at 85% or so, sort of Always Be Pushing pace, instead of tending towards the more conservative as I would on an IM. Then the first three miles of the run are steady (like an open marathon pace/effort level), with a slow build to a final 2-3 mile effort at 10K effort level.
The thing I like the least about your plan is the qualifier for good weather. Looks like a built in excuse. If you are going to smash through barriers you need to be prepared to do so regardless. Granted weather is not something you can control but it really does not matter if the goal is to beat the clock. If "well, I went 5:02 but it was windy so that is really kinda sorta like 4:59 if it wasn't" is going to be just as good to you fine ... but if it isn't you are going to want to smash through 5:00, lets call it 4:55:
6 minutes for transitions so 4:49 left
37 minutes to swim. An obvious choice would be to swim faster but assuming that is not going to happen - 4:12 left
2:40 bike after a 2:45 RR ? I imagine that you will ride faster than you think. I never go nearly as fast on a RR as I do on race day. Traffic control alone is worth 5 minutes. Combined with aero toys, legal drafting and never stopping I bet that you get off the bike in less than 2:35 - 1:37 to go
There is no reason you can not run 1:37 with your vdot. However, that is a lot easier to type than it is to do. Need to be prepared for it not to be a pleasant experience. When running in a half I tend to feel kinda sorta ill the entire time, like just on the verge of fully sick to my stomach. The start might not feel too bad. After the half way mark or so it is going to suck. There are tons of reasons to slow down at the end. Only you can decided if you are going to keep running.
FWIW, my prediction is 4:53:52, dimpled water bottles are not going to be a factor
Fair enough criticism. I don't mean to make excuses for perfection. My reservation was more related to the kind of heat we've been experiencing in the midwest than anything else. We have had near 100 degrees and 115+ heat index for the last week that is just breaking now with massive thunderstorms. (I lost three trees including one still resting on my garage roof....) I haven't looked that closely before, but I'm hoping that the proximity of Benton Harbor to Lake Michigan will keep things not so hot. A quick look at a weather web site makes it look like they got hot, but not like over here.
Here are pool numbers, all 25 scy pool in ordinary jammers:
1000 TT (i.e., more or less all out): 15:50 most recently (1:35/100 yd)
2200 race rehearsal (i.e., holding back measurably, but still hard): 36:17 (1:39/100 yd)
Long runs to the T1 area aside, what do you think? Am I leaving something on the table?
yeash ... I predict a 15 minute PR and all that comes through is the swim/weather criticism ... tough crowd
As for the swimming I think that if you can hold 1:35/100 for 1000 or swim 2200 yards [which is a couple hundred yards longer than the swim will be in your race] comfortably in 36:xx there is no excuse for you not swimming sub 32 on race day in a wetsuit, likely closer to 30. People generally exaggerate the amount of time it actually takes to run from the beach to the mat in T1.
If someone doesn't tell me I'm slacking more than I should, then I won't know, and it's hard to figure out a lot of this stuff on your own. That's what peer review is all about. I'm a professor and live and die by it, giving and receiving.
The swimming thing is and has been a genuine long-term concern, so it definitely rings a bell when someone says something about it to me. When I started triathlon 4-5 years ago, I had never really cycled at all, so that was my obvious weak point. Now I'm stronger there (but still a ways to go), but I can see that my swimming execution is a limiter. I've known that for a couple of years, but just am not so sure on what to do about it. (Apparently just shut up and swim faster....) :-)
There is a lot of wisdom about how hard to go on bikes and running, but really very little about the swim. Even PnR are squishy about it ("only swim as fast as your form allows," etc). If we're talking about racing at the "just finishing well" level, then it's absolutely true a few minutes aren't important. But I bet Mancona has a much better idea than I do about how fast he should swim relative to repeatable tests, cuz he's counting every minute. I'm getting closer to that point too, just not as close to the pointy end of the field as he is.
Anyway, I have a couple of weeks to mentally prepare to swim harder and do my last few swim workouts with that in mind. Thanks.
X 2 I do 1:37/100 in a pool, and consistently do high 33 low 34 in an HIM, PR of 32:XX. So execution on race day is your swim limiter. What might help?
1. Don't go crazy at the start. Stay steady and calm, and let all the chaos happen outside of you.
2. Don't worry about sighting, rely on the wisdom of crowds.
3. Find the right feet, and stay 50 CM behind them, shown to be the best location for reducing your drag in the water. It's OK to feel you're swimming a LITTLE too easy if you are drafting; to convince yourself, get out of the draft for 20 seconds and see how hard it is - you won't be able to pass the guy if they're the right feet, but you will be able to hang on without killing yourself. If he slows or swims erratically, find another pair - there'll be plenty all around you after the first 2-300 meters.
4. Gain time at the turn buoys. Hold an inside line and get going right away.
5. Don't be afraid to get a little tired on the final leg, the swim to shore - you're not going to be using your arms much the rest of the day, and your heart is the best exercised and strongest muscle in your body. As long as you can breath every second stroke and maintain that pace for the last 15-20 minutes, you are not going anaerobic and thus not compromising your cardiovascular or glycogen reserves.
My mantra is: Don't fall asleep on the swim. Meaning, work it a little bit more than you have in the past.
WJ,
You absolutely have the fitness for the PR you want to post. I think you'd be good riding at 83-84%, especially with your run fitness. I predict 2:36-37 bike split and < 1:34 run
It was a great pleasure meeting and chatting over dinner last weekend.
For the record:
33:58 swim, about 1 min of which out of the water. (Caught myself falling asleep a couple times. Might have left ~1 min?? out there)
5:15 T1 Helmet disaster. Easily left 2-3 minutes here
2:30:28 Bike: I just found out my Garmin was messing up after the last update for the last couple weeks after an update. About 10% of the data are missing. More on this later.
2:05 T2 Nothing to write home about.
1:37 Run. Might have left a minute out there, but not more.
4:48:43 overall.
Thanks everyone. Report to come.
told ya - congrats on the big PR.
Totally nailed it! Good job!