EP to Use For IM
Today i was reviewing the past season's numbers, and looked at my 09 IM AZ run pace. Minus 1:40 for two nature breaks, and the 3 minutes I gave to RnP at the start, my pace was 9:07/mile. My VDOTs from the year (including my first OS treadmill test today) were all 48/9, giving me an EP in the 8:40s. If I plug my run time for my last sprint tri before IM AZ, I get a VDOT of 46, and an EP of ...9:07.
Is there something to learn from this? I see two possibilities: (1) Maybe a well-raced sprint tri run is a better predictor of the pace to run the marathon in well-paced IM; or (2) I've got a LOT of potential time available to me in my next IM.
My IM marathon times are steadily coming down since 2005, when I finally "got it" about bike and run pacing: 4:48, 4:29, 4:22, 4:15, 4:06, 4:05, 4:08 (oops - CDA this year, 48 F and raining!), 4:03. It's hard to fathom that I could actually run a 3:50 IM marathon (of course, that's what I said about 4:15 and 4:05 as well), the time predicted by a VDOT of 49.4. My fastest road, track and treadmill 5k times in the last year are all 20:0X. BTW my best stand alone marathon, 5 years ago (I gave them up after that one) was 3:27.
Advice on where I should set my targets for 2010? Keep slowly chipping away at the 4 hour mark, or try to set a stretch goal of 3:50 for the IM run. I would need some external encouragement and validation to make the latter time my goal. I have always tried to set tough, but realistic goals for myself; it's worked well up to now. When I try to over reach, as I did in my races at Cal 70.3 and Kona last year, I usually blow up - I try to race right at the edge of my envelope.
Comments
I look at my current VDOT EP as a best case scenario, not a prediction of my performance in an Ironman.
Here is the way I would think about it if my EP was 8:30 min/mile.
Miles 1 - 6 are 9:00 or slower
Miles 7 - 18 are 8:30 exactly
Miles 19 - 26 are whatever I have left, but realistically 8:30ish.
Therefore when you average it all out, the actual average pace for the full marathon is slightly slower than your EP because of the first 6 miles..maybe 8:40 in this example.
If it is a perfect day and everything falls into place, you may be able to "make up" the first 6 miles during the last 8, but I don't count on that at all.
In other words ... my goal time for the marathon is whatever my EP works out to plus 3:00 and if I ever was to hit that I would be very happy.
I would prefer not to use another shorter race to estimate this as there are so many variables that come into plan then. By the time my A race comes around I am very confident in my VDOT being accurate. This is just a personal perference though.
I have to chuckle a bit because I find it a little challenging how to provide someone who just won their AG advice on how to set their IM run target for next year. And it's not like this was a first for you either.
This E pace predictor or, as Mancona calls it, best-case scenario is a very interesting subject, imho. I've been spending a lot of time talking to Keish Doi and Fred Haubensak over the last couple of years about their running. Not sure if anyone on EN knows these guys but they are probably two of the best IM runners out there -- especially when you factor in their age. You could certainly argue that they both perform as well as they do due to genetics but I find it way too coincidental that they happen to be training partners and they also happen to have a fairly unique mental approach.
First off, this is not intended to offend Mancona but statements like "best-case scenario" don't really come out of their mouths. If you were to ask them, a best-case scenario would probably look much closer to be able to do the IM run at their open marathon pace. Yeah, I know, many of you are saying no f'en way. But that's not the point. The point is that they don't define limitations in their mind. Anything is possible. Funny enough, Keish probably consistently executes the IM run >80% of T pace. They don't follow Daniel's paces but Keish's 10k pace is right around 6:00 and he has a 3:06 IM run to his credit. Scary stuff. Fred's 10K pace is a bit faster.
Before I started talking to these guys I never thought I would be able to run sub-3:30 for various reasons (eg my age, my level of talent/genetics, etc). Now I have 100% confidence I can run sub-3:20 and recently pulled off a 3:23 on what I considered to be a suboptimally paced IM run. I'm guessing that my VDOT is about a 57 but I haven't tested in a long time. One reason why I arrived at that number is because that puts my recent IM run right smack at E pace. Having said that, I find it very hard to believe that my T pace is 6:09. Of course, now I'm a bit motivated to test again.
I guess an analogy to address my point is that you'll never be a millionaire until you truly believe you can be a millionaire. Btw, that clearly assumes being a millionaire is an important goal to you.
Thanks, Chris
Chris, please don't worry at all about offending me. I'm here to learn more like everyone else and value yours and others responses. Best-case scenario was a poor choice of words on my part.
Anyway, I'd be interested to here how they paced there bike to get the run splits they did. Do they still have similar TSS targets as we do, or are they taking it easier (or even going harder) on the bike?
I think your goal is to get faster. Get faster means a higher VDot. Of course, it can mean lots of things (racing better, being more mentally strong, no limitations like Chris describes), but it sure would help your get-faster goal if you got yourself, you know, faster
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You put endurance on top of that VDot and by race day you're VDot is 51, for example. Calc your E-pace, use that as a target for race day. Do your best to manage that goal, and the day, in real time, and let the run time sort itself out at the finish.
I'd like to thank Matt, Chris, and Rich for responding. To follow Chris' analogy, yes I do want to be an IM millionaire. To quote Bono, "Glorify the past, and the future dries up." In other words, I don't ever want to rest on laurels, but rather intend to improve up to, and then expand, my limits.
The examples of successful IM runs at > 80% of TP demonstrate that a "best-case" of a run at EP is possible, which is what I was looking for when I asked the question. While I'd like to see a higher VDOT, at my age, I'm proud just to hold the line from year to year. Faster would be a bonus, but at this point, I'd like to maximize my current potential before I focus on trying to wring more speed out of my legs and lungs. So, trying to drop 11 minutes (or 25 seconds per mile) becomes my achievable, but hard to reach, goal for the next year or two. I suspect that will take improvement in my bike FTP (and pacing) more than better run capability.
As to winning more races, five years ago I adopted the maxim: "Pay attention to nutrition and pace, then time and place take care of themselves."
Well stated!!!
Interesting thread. The whole concept of thinking about what is possible and not allowing pre-conceived notions to limit your goals is inspiring.
I wish I had a strong sense of how hard or easy they ride but I don't. Neither rides with a PM. Although, that hasn't stopped me from asking them the question about 20 different ways. What I can tell you is that they execute the bike very differently. Fred is probably one of the most conservative guys in the first 2hrs but he definitely finishes strong. Keish probably has a tendency to ride harder overall. I'm fairly confident that if you put a PM on their bike that neither of them are pulling off relatively low IFs though. My educated guess would be that they ride yielding similar TSSes but Keish definitely takes more risks on the bike than Fred.
The short answer is that I don't believe the run as well as they do because of how they pace the bike. Clearly they don't screw it up too often although Keish admittedly rode too hard at IMC this year and cracked on the run.
Thanks, Chris
Rich just provided you with the boring answer.
Yeah, just go raise your vdot...