Kona slots at established races
Ironman is expanding. On October 9th, the World Triathlon Corporation (WTC) announced the addition of races in Estonia, Dubai, Sweden and the United Kingdom. On October 17th, they plan to announce a new race in Italy. And that does not include the expected expansion in to Asia as stated by the new owners (who happen to be Chinese) of WTC during an interview by Dan Empfield. http://www.slowtwitch.com/Interview..._5417.html
Lake Tahoe has been cancelled and I would not be surprised to hear in the future that other North American races that don't sell out (ie. less profit margins) are being cancelled. New owners can mean new priorities. But I doubt the number of races being cancelled will equal or be more than the number of new races being announced. It can be assumed that each of these new races will have Kona slot allocations. And since the pier at Kona that "host" T1 and T2 at the World Championships has a limited amount of real estate for bikes, the total number of Kona slot allocations can not be increased much more than it has already been.
It appears that WTC has cut back the number of slots at established races next year. IM Canada, IMLP, and IMCDA (the only ones I have checked and confirmed) have only 40 Kona slot allocations when this year it is my understanding they each had 50. Thus, less slots per age group and less slots to likely roll down. Although the Regional Championships will still have 75.
For those of you hoping to KQ in the next year or two, does this affect which races you are considering registering for in 2016 and/or 2017? If so, in what ways?
Comments
1) the group 'hurt' the most by this is the largest AGs, so Men 35-50 typically. Those three AGs already get a disproportionately low amount of Kona spots relative to their share of race participants and that will be exacerbated as the 'at least one Kona spot per AG' rule will mean as many as 65% of the slots will be allocated to AG winners compared to a max of 52% today (for races with 50 spots) or 37% for races with 70)
2) Since most of the new races are being added outside the US I think it will ultimately make it more difficult to qualify in a US race as the demand of pointy end competitors won't change but the supply of Kona spots will be reduced. There may be a few folks that travel overseas to try and snag a spot, but I don't anticipate that materially affecting anything.
3) There's a lot of talk about the women's pro field in Kona expanding, so that coupled with the new races and offset by fewer spots at existing races will be the equation to keep total Kona participants flat as unfortunately they race can't expand unless they were to change the venue which I don't see happening.
4) I think you'll see a lot of 'bubble' type folks flock to those races with more slots like the NA Championship, etc but in a perverse way I think it almost make sit more difficult to KQ at those races. Ultimately race selection will be key, but unfortunately you don't know if the race selection is right until after the face and you see who shows up.
Ultimately...the times they are a changin'. It was only a couple years ago that M35-39 and M40-44 would have 7 spots. Nowadays it's typically 5, and starting next year it could be as low as 4 or even 3.
Look forward to others' thoughts on this.
@Rich: Great question. Estonia and Dubai will be 70.3 which of course does not affect the number of Kona slots. Here is the link to the WTC announcement: http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/news/articles/2015/10/ironman-europe-to-announce-new-events-in-2016.aspx#axzz3oSU219HO
But as the announcement states, "In total the 2016 IRONMAN European Tour will consist of more than 40 IRONMAN and IRONMAN 70.3 events." So no matter how many actual new full distance races there are in 2016, we know that the number of slots at established races will drop to 40 except for the Regional Championships. And as WTC expands in to Asia--as stated by the new owners and where the Ironman brand growth is-- do you feel the number of slots at North American races is likely to continue to decrease?
this really pisses me off.
I signed up for Canada 2016 while the site still said 50 slots. they can't change a contract (with me) once it is signed, but they did.
a lot of the races currently open for registration have slots listed from the previous year so be careful. if a race is currently open for registration, wtc should have everything set in stone. otherwise, the race should not be open for registration. period.
wtc is showing huge disrespect for established race like cda and Canada by decreasing the slots to 40. plus as a northwesterner I am feeling unfairly picked upon.
I still am planning on Canada. factoring in everything, still probably the best chance for me as a new 50 yo. and as backup, cda would also still be a good choice, based on my past performances, past competitors times, etc.
tempting to do Texas yet again, with the 75 slots, but my research is not backing that up as the best option. higher level competition. etc.
those of you that have done Kona might not want it even more crowded. but wtc can easily expand the field by adjusting the transition area. it is the world championship so it could and should be a teeming mass of the world's best.
@ Bob yeah a little disheartening. Feels like I'm chasing my tail and always a year or two behind where I need to be.
Also, I'm pissed for Robin especially because I noticed IMC still had 50 slots and was SURE they couldn't just change it AFTER registration was opened. That's total BS.
As to your specific question, was already considering IMTX but I'm sure so is everyone else so it may be a moot point. 99% sure I'm going anyway unless some magical west coast IM pops up or one of the new European races really strikes my fancy. IMC is my "home" race and unless I qualify elsewhere I almost have to give it a go. Slots will probably drop from 3 to 2 in my AG. Really, it was only 4-5' (yes, the length of a mechanical...) but who know what it will be next year.
The "moxie" part of me says I just need to be that much faster and to work harder but... alas... not sure if that will be sufficient. Chin up for now.
Regardless, 8 down, 4 to go. Surely they won't pull the plug on that too.
1 - On a more technical bike course there are many minutes to be had by knowing the course. IMMOO is a perfect example of this. I'd ridden the course six times in the past two years leading up to this year's race and knew every inch of it.
2 - "Who shows up" is a huge deal. If you focus on one race you essentially hedge your bets across the years. At IMWI the last spot in the M35-39 AG has been anywhere from a 9:54 to 10:07..that's a huge range.
3 - Somewhat related to #2, as more people try to pick and choose races for these same reasons some of the races that have been difficult to KQ historically may actually be some of the easier ones.
I did Kona in '03 so whatever set up that was, that's the only one I know...
It should be pointed out that this is Ironman World Championships. You put together a 140mi race, conduct them around the world and dangle a WC carrot in front of ^this^ group of people, who by the very nature of the sport have pre-selected themselves to be basically the apex predators of the endurance sports world. It only stands to reason that it should get more and more difficult to qualify, for any number of reasons, one of which is certainly a fixed number of slots applied to a growing list of races.
I remember Back in the Day when there were 80-100 slots at most races. I remember when there wasn't a legacy program and your only ways of doing Kona were to be very, very fast, very luck (lottery) or very famous/a celebrity/charity whatever, etc.
I guess my answer is "It's a World Championship. It's supposed to be difficult to get a ticket to The Show."
And since IMTX is the North American Championships again next year, maybe in 2017 it won't be and may have less pointy-end racers. Thoughts? I know I still have a few more OSs before I'll be at the pointy-end. But I'd like to participate on the course before I race it to, as Jeremy said, get the know it. (Hopefully when IMTX is moved to April in 2017, they will not change the course.) I'll just have to "suck it up and drive on" to get my ticket!
here's a thought, what if they created new bike racks to hang bikes vertically by their rear wheel? might be a pain for the retrieval of bikes, but it certainly would allow more bikes in the same space, ok not very practical... an better idea, might be to build a temporary second deck with stairs up and a ramp down... at some point, creativity should come in to getting more people in. If the 2nd deck idea is unfair, use that space for non-qualifying racers. Anyone in on a charity, ebay, contest winner, celebrity, lottery type of slot, gets the cheap seats/ longer Transition time... btw, why does Gordon Ramsey get a 2nd year entry into Kona as a celeb? not like He KQd!
This is a complex issue, many moving parts:
In order to keep some hope of KQ for those who aren't (a) ex-pros, (b) coaches, (c) genetic freaks, (d) some sort of lottery or multiple race legacy program, or (e) "really old" (meaning: older than me), is there a way to either add slots at an expanding number of races or add slots by increasing the number of participants in the race itself? And, is there a reason for WTC to even worry about this question?
From a business perspective, the number of IM racers who see themselves, either now or in the future, as potential KQers is probably in the range of 10-20%, a substantial portion of their customers. So keeping them motivated seems like a good idea. Also, there is the halo effect on the other 80%, being a part of a race where such "important" competition is going on. It's clear from recent history it is the AG Kona slots which are the driver; the presence or lack of pros in a race doesn't seem to have the same halo effect.
So, if I were Andy Messick, I would do these things:
I have no doubt the executive committee of WTC has all this and more on its mind. It's their world, we just live in it. But we need to be kept happy for them to prosper.
(Just for fun, I also posted this on Slowtwitch Forum)
I'm determined to take 10' off my IM run to get me on that 3rd step vs always being at risk of being run down by the freaks in my AG putting up sub 3:30 marathons. At THAT is the quality of competition at the KQ level: almost 50yr old men running sub 3:30 marathons off an IM swim and bike. Really highlights just how pointy the IM pointy end has become
@Rich, I'm an old guy closing in on the 3:30 marathon thing. It's the competitive guys who swim under an hour that really bother me
Those sub 60' swimmers are awesome, smart, and incredibly handsome, I've observed...
You aren't just competing against me as an athlete, you are competing against a guy who has built his entire life around this sport...inherently it's unfair to the fully employed M40-44 folks, but then again, I assume they'll be having the last laugh when the 401k stuff is added up. Don't hate the player, hate the game. Most of the guys I am competing against are "full time" at this sport as coaches, bachelors, independently wealthy or self-employed / business owners...
The slot changes for LP and other races are real..at 40 slots, with ostensibly Male and Female at 12 AGs each (thru 75-79), that leaves 16 slots to be divided to the remainder of the field. So someone like Jenn Edwards who has been chasing one of three spots for a decade now gets to chase one of two....but it's the middle age men who complain the most.
In Kona at the Parade of Nations, the US had the biggest contingent of competitors....763 out of 23xx, almost 1 in 3 racers...South Korea had 1. Brazil had maybe 70. Germany had about the same...and Australia too...instead of knowing a handful of folks who qualify, my guess is we'll soon be able to recite all of the US qualifiers by Name, since there will be less than 300 of them...that number actually reminds me of a great movie with a lot of similarities...
1. Field limitations at Kona which are reducing the slots...easily fixed at other venues.
2. New venues will pay to host, Kona apparently does not. Rumor that Nice is offering 8 million.
3. New owners desire sport expansion and ties to sport travel. Again, Kona is a limiter.
4. Kona favors a certain type of athlete. Different champions may emerge at different venues.
5. Precedent for most WCs is rotation.
I like the idea of rotating it so that it's more accessible to other folks around the world. But i'd be hard pressed to think of a better place to be, train, and hang out than Hawaii. Can't see myself spending a week in England...or South Africa...maybe NZ? But then...would I go to NZ if that meant my race / travel price tag for the WC went from $5k to $10k?
Ultimately I think it's good for the sport...maybe not so much for me, but good for the sport.
Thanks jenn for the commiseration. Texas 2016 is good choice for you.
This soon to be o.f. probably will only get two slots at Canada. But just more inspiration to work it.
By the by, anyone have an idea where the North American
championships for ironman will be in 2017? Probably not three years in
texas.
Regardless texas in 2017 with the april time will be nice with cooler temps.
appreciate everyone's ideas in this thread.
it is a tough mental thing as the Kona dream continues to be just out of reach. but reinforces the idea of focusing on the process. and then what will happen will happen.
coming up on 50 yo, still feel I can get faster in all three disciplines. will be interesting to see what age I start to get absolutely slower. though, the important thing will be to slow down slower than the other old folks.
What's strange is when you do the math and multiply the 32 IM races times the 40 slots and then add another 300 slots for the 4 regional championships and finally add on the 100 legacy slots that only get you around 1700 slots. Obviously there are corporate/ebay/charity slots, but 600 seems very high unless WTC has several IM's in the works for 2016.
I tend to agree with Jeremy in that picking a race and sticking with it has it's merits. As long as you race consistently or even better continue to improve, you take out some of the variability in terms of who shows up. After finishing 5th this year at IM Bouler and just missing the KQ, i was lured in by the 75 slots at next years IMTX so i'm in for TX. However, i know this will attract a super competitive field. I'm also signed up for Boulder again, but coach P is right in that the pointy, pointy end is made up of people who are doing this for a living. 2 of the top guys in my AG are full time coaches and 1 is a former pro cyclist who finished 4th overall. Tough to compete with that kind of talent.
in 2016 i'm going to play this out and see what happens at both the races with 40 slots and at TX with 75. But, i think my plan will be something along the lines of 2 IM/yr with one being the regional championship and another being either my local race (boulder) or a team focused/destination race. In that way i get 2 cracks at the KQ. 1 with more slots, but more competition and the other with fewer slots but possibly less competition and some type of intrinsic benefit.
Then the other part of me says don't sweat this too much because things will probably continue to change and evolve as has always been the case. Time will tell
@ Jeremy - I think attacking the same race several years in a row is a wise strategy if you have reason to visit the same place again and again - besides the race itself. And ditto on the full time athletes. I learned that years ago after meeting one guy who had built and sold a successful business, another who had been a high powered lawyer but became a personal trainer, another who retired early while his wife still worked, and another former pro/current coach. That's the competition and I just don't worry about it any more. I would like to go to Kona once and if I don't get a KQ I'll happily accept a LQ and the free welcom banquet that goes with it.