FTP to get to the Big Show
So I started reading Jim Vance's Triathlon 2.0 which focuses on data-driven training. Vance has an interesting section on what it takes to get to Kona. He compiled data from athletes he coached who made it to the Big Show, or Kona.
Here are the numbers for the bike for males. Nothing too surprising. I generally assumed you need to be in the 4+W/kg club, but it looks like for my age group of 40+ 3.75W/kg might get you there. Unfortunately for me, that means increasing my FTP by about 20%. That's probably 2-3 years of focused effort away.
For the run, Vance uses run FTP, or rFTP. He also has a new book about running with power, so I'm guessing this is a metric he made up there. I wish he used VDOT, but the math is simple enough. rFTP is the maximum pace you could hold for one hour. It would correspond to your 10k (for slower runners) or 15k (for runners whose 10k time is less than 45 minutes) paces. So for Kona it would realistically be your 15k pace.
When I do the math for male 40+, I get that you need a VDOT of at least 50 to have a shot. The good news for me is that I missed 50 by 3 seconds on my last 5k test.
For the ENers who've made it to the Big Show, how does this compare to your data?
Comments
For my KQ last year as the oldest in the M35-39 AG my FTP was 295 which at 72.7kg my FTP w/kg was 4.1. My NP for the race was 2.8 and my run (which was the best relative to the other disciplines) was 3:26 which was slower than my TRP based on my VDOT of 56.
That said..it's important to note that it depends how you perform across all three. If you are a really good runner you can get away with lower W/KG on the bike. if you are a super fast swimmer you may be able to give up a little on another disciplines. So you really need to look at what your balance is across each area. For me, I'm not the fastest in any one..but I'm very competitive in all three so I never feel like I have to 'dig out' and make up for a deficiency. Out of over 300 I was 23rd after the swim (1:01), 5th after the bike (5:15) and 3rd after the run (3:26).
So...look at where you are in each...look at where you need to be overall (based on prior times) and see where your gaps and biggest opportunities are. Hitting a 'magic' FTP isn't going to do it unless you have a swim and VDOT that fit together for a competitive overall time.
my vdot is actually 59, FTP is a bit low at 270 but I am not heavy and I am at 4.02w/kg.
Also I think you have to consider everything you can't control during that... mechanic, nutrition etc.. and what happens to your competitors might help you during that day !
I am a 53 Vdot, 4.07w/kg (287 FTP), and a horrible swimmer.
As a function of my limited commitment and training - I never converted those numbers to 5 hr power and marathon distance. I was in decent 1/2 IM shape, but short well short of decent IM shape. I finished in ~11:41 @ IM South Africa which was a dissappointment, but in line with my fitness. I executed the race well with what I had. I believe my IM potential is sub 10:30 hrs if I commit to it. Stats fail to capture commitment, keeping your headspace out of training from an IM for 6 months, poor racing season schedules, etc.
1 - only focus on the things you can control or influence. You can't impact the weather, your competition, etc. so the more you can remove that from your head the better off you will be.
2 - don't ignore the 'softer' areas like experience. You may have all the right numbers but there is a very real value to experience (both in racing ironman events and knowing how your body and mind are impacted but also on having intimate knowledge of the specific course). With few exceptions most kona qualifiers don't make it over the jump until their 3rd or 4th race or beyond. When I qualified at Wisconsin last year I had raced their twice. It was my third IM. And it was probably the 10th time I had ridden that exact course.
One thing I have learned from Tim is that your w/kg over 5 hours is really the key focus for success.
FTP and w/kg for one hour is one thing. Holding a solid number for 5 hours is another monster, one of which I am still learning to improve at.
All good and important comments below. Focusing on your 5 hour power, improving that AND running well off the bike for 26.2 is what will get you to KONA and that is consistent across the board when you look at age group KQ's independent of AG.
SS
My notes:
My notes:
As SS stated...5 hour power is the key...you will test your limits here in training which will translate to high TSS with dedicated training and ultimately drive up your CTL enabling you to execute like a Ninja armed with your 5 hour power training results.
This thread is rich with golden wisdom! Glad I started it.
Reading this, some of my key take aways are:
That leads me to a question and a thought:
Great info, Tim! So it sounds like one should be at a sub-1:10 wet suit swim. The folks I've seen who KQ with a swim greater than 1:10 usually have a lethal bike and run.
Wow, CTL of 140 for over 6 months really puts into perspective the hard work required. When my CTL gets into the 90s I feel exhausted and depleted. The blanket of fatigue at 140 must be suffocating. How did you ramp up from 70 to 140? Something like 10% per week?
-my KQ years have been racing at 4.0wkg on 148-150 pounds. Ballpark vdot 50-52.
-I agree with Tim that a differentiating factor is riding at % of ftp. I'd love to post a number here, but mine would be absurdly low ... I really like my coasting on race day.
-I saw the 140 last season, and it got into my head ... To the point that I was spending some time chasing it in my a race IM build. While I felt very very prepared by the time race day came, I was also carrying around more fatigue than was optimal. Like everything, it's individual.
-hard to disagree with all of the other stuff, but you'll keep coming back to consistency and recovery as keys. And sometimes, you just gotta go long.
-maybe to complicate things even further ... Race day w/ kg and cda, as maintained over the entire bike. Everyone looks aero In the first 10 miles .... It's a Different story at mile75+. A big ftp isn't going to do much for you if you're sitting up like a sail for 35 miles.
Great stuff here. Gabe, when you asked TC about getting from 70 to 140 CTL points, you pretty much identified Part 2 of 3 of my view of the KQ Puzzle. Part 1 is the speed part that you opened with: establishing that 1:20-/100yds, 4.0+w/kg, 50+vDOT speed/power. Many people (including me) have all three of those boxes checked, but extending that out to 1, 5 and 3.5 hours - or to 140 CTL points - turns out to be an unmanageable beast for most of us. Simply put, unless you're a natural in one leg, it takes a lot of smart, consistent, quality work (and volume) in all three disciplines to unleash that speed across 140.3 (128 at TX, 144 at Choo). Nailing all three, while managing body comp, nutrition, sleep, injury, illness, family, work, etc. - way too much for the typical AGer. I've still never put it all together, but I get closer each time and am convinced I can eventually yank that rabbit from the hat. So I keep coming back for more.
First, "you cant win an IM in the swim, but you can lose it" Very rare to kq without a competant swim. For 40-50, I'd say that about 60 min.
My data from when I Q'd in my 55-59: swim 66-7 min, VDOT 50, and w/kg of 4.0 Also, it didnt happen until I was finally able to fully appreciate and apply EN race execution, which I learned 2005, years before actually joining EN. Also, note specific body comp...I'm lucky in that mine has been 5-7% BF since I biked across the USA summer '97, and is easy to control.
Most people that know me think I am really thin now (I used to weight 40-50lbs more than I am since taking up tri) that said, I haven't really pushed this to where it should be for this game and I am working on that now..
I truly think that body comp will get me to 3.95-4.0w/kg, it will also get me pretty close to a 50Vdot... now about that swim
Mike r. Had previously mentioned some magic numbers. Being able to 3 watt/ kg in ironman race. Being able to 3:00 stand alone marathon.
And all the other factors mentioned.
Interesting dave t. Comments on % ftp for ironman. So dave are you cranking up the ftp and expecting to race a lower % of that ? Versus some other kqs that are racing a higher percentage of ftp but still end up around 3 watt/ kg ?
If i can get body comp in line, I am confident I can get to 4.0 w/KG - will that translate to a KQ bike split? will the weight loss and run training get me to a KQ run split (assuming I can keep it together)? Will I be able to put together a race where another year of training, a Real year of swim training and luck of the g-ds get me there in '17?
all good questions, but that's why I keep playing the game!
nah ... more of a commentary on how I coast where and when I can (and probably more than most others), and it ends up being reflected as a low-ish NP/AP (and a high IF!).
Really great thread....I resonate with Mike's comments that in addition to consistent focused training over several years, there are all the other variables that need to be managed to put yourself in a position to qualify. To be truly competitive you need to do the work and live the life just about 24x7 because that's what the top AGers are doing. Recovery, body comp, quality sleep, nutrition, stress management, being the guy at the party not drinking...the list goes on and at times it sucks. I'm sure we've all been there at one time or another when there are just too many balls up in the air, but that's the juggling act required to earn that ticket to the show.
The only thing to add that hasn't been mentioned is the importance of race selection. Yes, it's true that you can't control who shows up, but you can find courses that play to your strengths so if the cards fall your way you have put yourself in the best possible position to KQ. That can be courses that are hilly or flat or even courses that have a disproportionate number of entrants in one gender which moves the bulk of slots to that gender.
Mike, insightful analysis! It shows why it's so hard to KQ. I know a few very fast athletes outside of EN who have Part 1 but still don't KQ. I see them on Strava and the thing I notice is they aren't putting in the training volume to get to the CTL = 140 range for months to get Part 2. That translates to probably 15+ hours per week S/B/R. That's hard to manage with work and family. Personally, I can spend maybe 4-6 weeks in that range of training hours before I've burned all my SAUs, not to mention feeling like I was run over by a truck all the time.
The good news for me is I can focus on Part 1 for now and worry about Part 2 in a few years.
Question: what is Part 3 of your Kona puzzle?
Mark, interesting how top AGers are training basically like pros. The podcast IM Talk interviewed Peter Vaughn, an AGer who has done 100 IMs over the last 30 years or so. He said until the early 2000s nobody wanted to go to Kona. They'd have roll down slots where they'd offer them to anyone who wanted it, and still have no takers. The level of competition among age grouper seems to keep increasing.
You touched on one thing I've been thinking about lately: recovery. I see you putting up monster volume on Strava. What do you do for recovery? Such as extra sleep, tracking resting heart rate, etc. I shoot for 8-9 hours of sleep per night and check my resting heart rate upon waking to adjust my workouts accordingly. If I take a week off serious training, all of the sudden I only need about 6 hours sleep.
Good addition about race selection. I think i remember Rich or Patrick doing a podcast or blog on it. Has anyone seen an analysis on which races are best for different strengths?