@Larry Peters my long runs ranged from pancake flat (16 miles on the track due to a windstorm) to a little more hilly than the race. The race itself (Seattle Marathon) was pretty hilly, over 900' of gain, but with mid-40s temperatures that were perfect for a fast marathon.
It looks like you have been running in the heat, so you might gain some time if the conditions on race day are cooler.
I would expect not carrying as much weight to help. Maybe 1-2 sec per mile per pound? I still hand-carry a disposable bottle at the start of the race so that I can skip the early aid stations. I'm also trying lighter shoes for races this year which I think will get me a few minutes (though I wouldn't experiment with something like that right before a race).
Yes, some of my runs have been pretty hot. Thanks for the reminder! I meant to put the temperature as a column in my spreadsheet analyzing my long runs.
I've been playing around with lighter shoes & have a pair that I like a lot & are probably as light as I can get for that distance and still have some stability for my mild pronation (Saucony Fast Twitch, 7.5 ounces). Sadly, most of my long runs have been in light shoes, so I can't expect to save too much there. My best run was in a pair that is about an ounce heavier, but that isn't much.
One other important question in considering how your training paces translated into your race pace: Were those long training runs intended to average ~Goal Race Pace? Or were they designed to spend some time at GRP and some time at a slower pace? I spent at least half of my miles in most runs intentionally running ~20 seconds slower than GRP....
Also, the "Marathon nutrition" EN wiki says "Normal food intake, with an emphasis on slightly saltier foods and constant hydration with a sports drink and/or water." the day before the race? Don't people normally eat a little extra calories? Like some extra carbs? Regardless, since I'm trying to maintain a daily calorie deficit recently, I will definitely eat more than what has been "normal" for me the last 8 weeks. I'm thinking ~1000 calories over for ~3000 total calories based on my best long run. Anyone have thoughts on that? http://members.endurancenation.us/Resources/Wiki/tabid/91/Default.aspx?topic=marathon+nutrition
@Larry Peters What is your max heart rate? I took a look at your long runs and your HR looks pretty nice, steady and low. For those runs, how much did it hurt?
I am the same age as you and I have BQ'd twice (Although this the last time I didn't make that 3:23 cutoff... but I wasn't going to do Boston anyway so oh well)
My Max HR is 193 and for an all out Marathon my HR averages 172. That might help you figure out what is possible. On my most recent marathon I ran 3:08:XX and my long runs were around the same pace as yours. I did the first half under 1:32 and I kind of blew up at the end. I consider myself undertrained in that one. In my better marathon, my long runs were faster, but I feel like those runs hurt worse so its possible I could have trained a little less hard with similar results? I think for you sub 3:10 is definitely doable and you have a good shot at sub 3:06.
For picking a target pace think about the course terrain also. Is the first half easier or harder than the second half? Its pretty tough to evenly split a marathon. If your goal is 3:06 you might want to go out a bit faster, especially if the first half is easier (less hilly) so you can bank some time.
I think my best advice is that marathons at this effort really hurt. For me an open marathon is way worse than an Ironman marathon. Just be prepared for the suck and own it. Good luck!
@Larry Peters during my career of 7 stand alone marathons (3 @ Boston), I found the best predictors of my race day time/pace were a combination of:
My 5k and 10k times, then using one the the online calculators to predict "best possible" marathon time (VDOT approach)' and
My average and max miles per week, which needed to be >45 & >55 respectively. YMMV, I'm only 145#.
Also, I would do at least two long runs of 18-20 miles which included about 3-5 miles at the end at my planned VDOT predicted marathon pace. If I was able to pull that off, I felt pretty confident about my ability to go for it on race day.
bottom line, use an actual, shorter race done during your build, rather than your training paces, to inform your race day pace.
@Peter Noyes and @Al Truscott, thanks a million for the thoughtful feedback! It is encouraging and I really appreciate it! I'll respond completely soon!
@Larry Peters I tend to follow the workouts in the Marathon Advanced Balanced plan, which worked well for me last year. Long runs are a mix of z1/z2 effort early on, often finishing with a couple of z4 miles. The average pace tended to be slower than z2, which I didn't worry about. I found the predicted times from my 5k time trial 4 weeks out, and a half marathon earlier in the year, to be pretty accurate (after subtracting the appropriate number of vdot points).
@Peter Noyes My max HR is a lot lower than most endurance athletes my age, I think. I haven't done a formal test (other than the EN 5k test and calculator).
I hit 174 bpm during 3 min intervals 2 weeks after my first 70.3. That was the highest reliable reading I have seen on one of my workouts. I was very fresh then. My EN Zone 5 is 157-160 for running. But, that being said, I averaged 145 bpm during my February 2017 marathon (Austin, TX), and 150 bpm during my May 2017 25 k run. So I'm thinking in the high 140's for most of the run, creeping into the 150s at the end. Thanks for checking that out!
Those runs did hurt. I ran them as about half at GRP+20" and half at GRP and that was hard.
Thanks for the vote of confidence @Peter Noyes !! I agree, I feel really good about breaking 3hr10 min, and we'll see about 3:06. I've been training as if 7:08 pace is my GRP (i figured that would be enough before hearing about this 3min23 second cut-off), and I feel like that is realistic. That leads to ~3hr7min marathon. I'm going to pace for 7:08 and let the "chips fall where they may" in terms of getting a slot for Boston (also Coach P's recommendation).
It is pretty flat the whole way, which is a major reason I picked it.
I'm getting mentally prepared this week for some serious hurt during the race!
Side-note regarding max HR: It was really interesting that I felt like it was easier than ever to get my heart rate up higher than usual/ever (since I started recording in January 2017) 2 weeks after my first 70.3 I thought it was because I was fresh from 1 week of taper & 1 week of recovery. I did feel really fresh at the time. But I also had spent a few days training in Boulder CO, three weeks prior, so I don't know if it the training at elevation had something to do with it.
Thanks so much for weighing in with some helpful advice @Al Truscott !
I still don't have a VDOT. Calculating one wasn't part of my EN marathon training program. But I plan to get one in the RDP/Out season.
My last hard 5k was in March, so I don't have reliable data for that unfortuantely. A 5k test wasn't part of my EN marathon build.
I had a modified EN marathon program specifically designed to come off of a long course triathlon, and quickly build up for an attempted BQ. (Also related to your comment on training plan @Mike Westover). Thanks a ton @Mike Westover for the continued feedback on your training and how it translated into race performance.
I DID have three long runs of 18-20 miles where many miles were at my GRP. They were x miles at GRP + 20'' and y miles at GRP. Those are what give me confidence: 18 miles (12+6), 20 (10+10), 20 (8+12). I didn't hit exactly GRP for the last one, but I had some stomach issues from using "carbo loading" as an excuse to eat 6500 extra calories the day before the long run (dummy).
I got the results from my MRI this morning. It turns out that there is a second tear down in the meniscus on the medial side of my left knee. The rip resulted in some loose cartilage that is interfering with my knee mechanics and will require some routine surgery.
The synovial fluid was flooding into my knee joint in response to the irritation being caused by the loose flap of cartilage. That is what caused the swelling. It is unclear when the second tear happened, but the increased mileage in September aggravated the knee.
Thanks @Al Truscott. That was good advice to for me to see an orthopedist, because things were going to continue going downhill.
I will get some minor surgery/arthroscopy to trim the cartilage that is interfering with the joint. I need to figure out the timing, but ideally within the next four weeks. The surgeon told me that following the surgery, I need to take 1-2 days off my feet. Then two weeks with limited movement of the knee. By week three, I should be able to get back in the pool and do some light cycling on my trainer. He said the prognosis is very good for me to be start easing back into running four to six weeks after surgery.
Perhaps, I can start a thread on recovering from arthroscopic surgery.
Oh, and the silver lining in all of this is that I have spent so much time in the pool this week, that I have finally taught myself how to do flip turns.
@Larry Peters Good luck with the marathon! Your data looks great.
Really sad to hear that news @Patrick Marsh , but I'm glad to hear that it sounds like a relatively quick recovery period.
Thanks a ton for the support!! Good luck to you in your recovery & goal to eventually BQ! Glad to hear you learned flip turns. They are really helpful in the pool .
Just wanted to wrap this thread by letting people know that I am back up and running. I had surgery at the end of October. My knee feels great and I have a green light from my doctor to return to running. His only suggestion was that I back off if I feel any pain after a run.
I had been limping around after my runs for so long, that I thought that the pain was normal. So it is a relief to have my knee feel so good. However, I have to admit that I felt pretty embarrassed by setting a public goal, only to end up sidelined a few months later.
Nevertheless, I am very glad to be back and excited to start training again. I will spend the next several months working on my cycling, flexibility and core strength, while slowly getting my run mileage back up again.
I am looking forward to setting new goals and tracking everyone's progress on theirs.
@Patrick Marsh No need to feel embarrassed. You set a goal but got injured, now if you did not do the training that would be a different story. I see you are in the February OS enjoy the pain free training. The BQ will be there for the taking if you decide to go for it once you get your running legs back.
@Patrick Marsh so good to hear your recovery is going well! I've no doubt you will maximize it and run faster sooner for being a great patient and now having no pain!
I had an injury as well this off season and while I didn't have a BQ goal, I had a run durability goal. That totally didn't happen and I was prevented from biking in part of my recovery as well. Now I am on the mend and easing back in. Onward!
Comments
It looks like you have been running in the heat, so you might gain some time if the conditions on race day are cooler.
I would expect not carrying as much weight to help. Maybe 1-2 sec per mile per pound? I still hand-carry a disposable bottle at the start of the race so that I can skip the early aid stations. I'm also trying lighter shoes for races this year which I think will get me a few minutes (though I wouldn't experiment with something like that right before a race).
Yes, some of my runs have been pretty hot. Thanks for the reminder! I meant to put the temperature as a column in my spreadsheet analyzing my long runs.
I've been playing around with lighter shoes & have a pair that I like a lot & are probably as light as I can get for that distance and still have some stability for my mild pronation (Saucony Fast Twitch, 7.5 ounces). Sadly, most of my long runs have been in light shoes, so I can't expect to save too much there. My best run was in a pair that is about an ounce heavier, but that isn't much.
One other important question in considering how your training paces translated into your race pace: Were those long training runs intended to average ~Goal Race Pace? Or were they designed to spend some time at GRP and some time at a slower pace? I spent at least half of my miles in most runs intentionally running ~20 seconds slower than GRP....
Also, the "Marathon nutrition" EN wiki says "Normal food intake, with an emphasis on slightly saltier foods and constant hydration with a sports drink and/or water." the day before the race? Don't people normally eat a little extra calories? Like some extra carbs? Regardless, since I'm trying to maintain a daily calorie deficit recently, I will definitely eat more than what has been "normal" for me the last 8 weeks. I'm thinking ~1000 calories over for ~3000 total calories based on my best long run. Anyone have thoughts on that?
http://members.endurancenation.us/Resources/Wiki/tabid/91/Default.aspx?topic=marathon+nutrition
Thanks a ton for all the help!
I am the same age as you and I have BQ'd twice (Although this the last time I didn't make that 3:23 cutoff... but I wasn't going to do Boston anyway so oh well)
My Max HR is 193 and for an all out Marathon my HR averages 172. That might help you figure out what is possible. On my most recent marathon I ran 3:08:XX and my long runs were around the same pace as yours. I did the first half under 1:32 and I kind of blew up at the end. I consider myself undertrained in that one. In my better marathon, my long runs were faster, but I feel like those runs hurt worse so its possible I could have trained a little less hard with similar results? I think for you sub 3:10 is definitely doable and you have a good shot at sub 3:06.
For picking a target pace think about the course terrain also. Is the first half easier or harder than the second half? Its pretty tough to evenly split a marathon. If your goal is 3:06 you might want to go out a bit faster, especially if the first half is easier (less hilly) so you can bank some time.
I think my best advice is that marathons at this effort really hurt. For me an open marathon is way worse than an Ironman marathon. Just be prepared for the suck and own it. Good luck!
bottom line, use an actual, shorter race done during your build, rather than your training paces, to inform your race day pace.
I hit 174 bpm during 3 min intervals 2 weeks after my first 70.3. That was the highest reliable reading I have seen on one of my workouts. I was very fresh then. My EN Zone 5 is 157-160 for running. But, that being said, I averaged 145 bpm during my February 2017 marathon (Austin, TX), and 150 bpm during my May 2017 25 k run. So I'm thinking in the high 140's for most of the run, creeping into the 150s at the end. Thanks for checking that out!
Those runs did hurt. I ran them as about half at GRP+20" and half at GRP and that was hard.
Thanks for the vote of confidence @Peter Noyes !! I agree, I feel really good about breaking 3hr10 min, and we'll see about 3:06. I've been training as if 7:08 pace is my GRP (i figured that would be enough before hearing about this 3min23 second cut-off), and I feel like that is realistic. That leads to ~3hr7min marathon. I'm going to pace for 7:08 and let the "chips fall where they may" in terms of getting a slot for Boston (also Coach P's recommendation).
It is pretty flat the whole way, which is a major reason I picked it.
I'm getting mentally prepared this week for some serious hurt during the race!
Side-note regarding max HR: It was really interesting that I felt like it was easier than ever to get my heart rate up higher than usual/ever (since I started recording in January 2017) 2 weeks after my first 70.3 I thought it was because I was fresh from 1 week of taper & 1 week of recovery. I did feel really fresh at the time. But I also had spent a few days training in Boulder CO, three weeks prior, so I don't know if it the training at elevation had something to do with it.
I still don't have a VDOT. Calculating one wasn't part of my EN marathon training program. But I plan to get one in the RDP/Out season.
My last hard 5k was in March, so I don't have reliable data for that unfortuantely. A 5k test wasn't part of my EN marathon build.
I had a modified EN marathon program specifically designed to come off of a long course triathlon, and quickly build up for an attempted BQ. (Also related to your comment on training plan @Mike Westover). Thanks a ton @Mike Westover for the continued feedback on your training and how it translated into race performance.
I DID have three long runs of 18-20 miles where many miles were at my GRP. They were x miles at GRP + 20'' and y miles at GRP. Those are what give me confidence: 18 miles (12+6), 20 (10+10), 20 (8+12). I didn't hit exactly GRP for the last one, but I had some stomach issues from using "carbo loading" as an excuse to eat 6500 extra calories the day before the long run (dummy).
Now to get lots of sleep!
I got the results from my MRI this morning. It turns out that there is a second tear down in the meniscus on the medial side of my left knee. The rip resulted in some loose cartilage that is interfering with my knee mechanics and will require some routine surgery.
The synovial fluid was flooding into my knee joint in response to the irritation being caused by the loose flap of cartilage. That is what caused the swelling. It is unclear when the second tear happened, but the increased mileage in September aggravated the knee.
Thanks @Al Truscott. That was good advice to for me to see an orthopedist, because things were going to continue going downhill.
I will get some minor surgery/arthroscopy to trim the cartilage that is interfering with the joint. I need to figure out the timing, but ideally within the next four weeks. The surgeon told me that following the surgery, I need to take 1-2 days off my feet. Then two weeks with limited movement of the knee. By week three, I should be able to get back in the pool and do some light cycling on my trainer. He said the prognosis is very good for me to be start easing back into running four to six weeks after surgery.
Perhaps, I can start a thread on recovering from arthroscopic surgery.
Oh, and the silver lining in all of this is that I have spent so much time in the pool this week, that I have finally taught myself how to do flip turns.
@Larry Peters Good luck with the marathon! Your data looks great.
Thanks a ton for the support!! Good luck to you in your recovery & goal to eventually BQ! Glad to hear you learned flip turns. They are really helpful in the pool
I had been limping around after my runs for so long, that I thought that the pain was normal. So it is a relief to have my knee feel so good. However, I have to admit that I felt pretty embarrassed by setting a public goal, only to end up sidelined a few months later.
Nevertheless, I am very glad to be back and excited to start training again. I will spend the next several months working on my cycling, flexibility and core strength, while slowly getting my run mileage back up again.
I am looking forward to setting new goals and tracking everyone's progress on theirs.
I had an injury as well this off season and while I didn't have a BQ goal, I had a run durability goal. That totally didn't happen and I was prevented from biking in part of my recovery as well. Now I am on the mend and easing back in. Onward!