A Few Informal Comments on the Changes to the Extreme Pointy End of IM Races....
Hey folks,
I got back from IMSG yesterday afternoon, after standing on the Veyo Wall for about an hour and then on the run course for another 3hrs. I had dinner after the race with Robin Sarner, where we discussed what it takes to KQ these days, and then exchanged a few texts with Patrick yesterday...so it got me thinking. If you don't mind, I'd like to keep this discussion "in Haus," please don't share with the rest of the world, as I'd like for PnI to be free to speak our mind without having non-members listen in somehow. Anyway...
The men's AG's, from 35 to ~64yo have just gotten crazy, crazy fast in the last 3yrs. Without looking too closely at the results or doing an analysis (Matt S?) I can just tell you that the extreme pointy end of these AG's has gotten MUCH faster very quickly.
We have a guy local to us, 51yo. Very, very solid athlete, am going to try to hook up with him for some training this summer (is racing SG, CDA, Vineman, 70.3 WC's, Kona, AZ...but that's another story). Went 10:20 and got THIRD in his AG. I think 1st was <10:05. Let me first say that the difficulty of IMSG is on another plane from the other races. I would guess there's easily a 25-30' handicap on this course, for very strong athletes, likely much greater for others. To go 10:20 on this course is legit. To get 3rd with a 10:20 is...unusual. To be in the 50-54 AG and get third with a 10:20 at IMSG...that's just fookin' fast. </p>
I know how this guy trains. I would say that his entire non-working life is focused on long course triathlon training. I also know, from reputation and/or observation many of the guys at the front of the fields in the men's 35-65 AG's. I've raced them, heard about them, know people that know them, have seen them at races for years and years, etc. In my limited observation, most would fall into this ^^ non-working life stuff above.
So this is what I've observed:
- I think the sport is old enough to have sorted out over the years many of the "give it a tri" types after their 3rd or 4th season. What you're then left with, at the top 1-5% of every AG, is a small but not-usually-decreasing cadre of AG'ers for whom racing Ironman and the extreme pointy end of their AG is a HUGE part of their life and lifestyle.
- They are in a position in their lives, or have created the conditions, where they can dedicate a LOT of resources to their chosen sport. The most valuable being, I expect, training time.
- It's no secret that we focus on FTP, VDot, maximizing the effect of your limited training time on these two metrics, building FAST in the OS before we build endurance in-season through the application of volume, etc. This is absolutely the way to go for people who can't/don't want to apply >~16hrs/wk on a consistent basis, week after week, to their sport.
- However, there's another performance bump that does happen north of >18-20hrs per week, applied week after week, month after month, year after year. My sense is that this is what we're seeing with the cadre of mature, pointy end gents: IM training and racing, and all the stuff that involves is...just who they are. 4hrs on Saturday and 4hrs on Sunday is just their gig. 2hr+ long runs, all year...is just their gig. Huge epic weeks with friends or at expensive camps...is just their gig. The rub, of course, is that this level of focus is either unreleastic, impossible, or undesirable for 98% of AG'ers, as it's is a combination of $, time, personal, and lifestyle flexbility.
So, basically, the older you get you should realize that the herd is winnowed down to a cadre of guys who are extremely serious about this sport and, I would argue, it may actually become much more difficult to qualify the older you get.
Caveat: I know very few of these guys personally, I don't have insights into the training they actually do, but I have been able to observe networks created by/between these guys over the years, etc: this guy trains with this guy who I know is doing this and this, has this history, they both race this and this and that race, I've seen them at more than a few races over the years...you start to see patterns.
Of course, this thread could go into the direction of PED's and much, much more. I have no idea about any of that stuff. I'll admit I've seen some jacked older doodes on the course that make me say "hhhmmmm" but as a 43yo male who's been very active his whole life...I personally don't feel myself agingorwhatever as quickly I'm "supposed" to? While I've been out of the IM game for 3yrs, I'm very confident that I can back to at least my 2002, 34yo performance at IMWI, and I hope much faster. The numbers are definitely trending that way. I'm pretty sure that I could get faster still if I stayed on it for the 2012 season as well, though historically my own personal racing only seems to occupy my interest for a season or two at a time. My point is does a lifetime of athletics wired your body differently, kinda slowing down the aging process or allow you to maintain/get faster deeper into your years than you'd otherwise expect? Again...no idea.
I do get hungover much, much easier than I used to. I wish that would stop 
Finally, has there been a similar trend among the women or has this been confined to the men? I have no idea, I'd like to hear your insights.
Comments
I'd like to hear from the other Matt S with some data. What happened at IMWI last year in the M45-49 doesn't really hold this theory up 100%. Probably just an anomoly though. Assuming IMSG is that much more difficult than WI, which is tough in itself, these results are slower. Here are last year's KQ results. These are not the roll-downs either. I'm not anticipating that we'll see the same thing this year. It could be all who KQ go quite a bit faster.
M40-44 last year: Top nine went under 10:00!!!
A short comment now, then I'll come back with some personal thoughts on this later.
One word: demographics. The peak birth years in the US were from 1956-1961, tailing on either side of that. So the 50-54 y/o AG SHOULD be the toughest AG, just from the statistical pool of potential competitors.
I could probably write a 5000 word essay on this subject; I'll try to be brief.
From 2005-2010, I probably qualified to be one of those guys Rich is writing about, or at least I smelled them coming over my shoulder. During that time, I entered 10 IMs, qualified for Kona in six times, finished 1st in my AG 4 times with three course records. Looking back, there are a number of areas where my life changed. I don't know if those changes enabled my success, or were a result of it. I do know the changes all seemed to creep up on me; I didn't feel like I was planning for these things to happen, they just did:
1. I gave up or drastically reduced almost all other fitness/outdoor related activities except those directly related to improving my IM performance (and I was very good at all of these): downhill skiing, mountain biking, Xterra racing, my budding running career (eg stopped doing standalone long races after my second Boston), multi-day "fun" group rides (as opposed to training specific "camps").
2. I took my work time down from 100% to 60%. Granted, I'm at the age where one would want to do that anyway, but part of the reason was to have more time to attend to training. That's not time to train per se, but time to rest, to think about triathlon, to eat better, to devote to those "camps", etc.
3. I swam, biked, and ran about 720 hours per year. That's an *average* of two hours a day. Some weeks, of course, were 0-5 hours, and some were up to 25. An IM training block was always 15-20 hours, with a couple of 20-25 hour weeks.
4. I changed my eating habits to revolve around my fueling needs, as well as jettisoning junk, rich, and fried foods, etc. I was on the razor edge of too little weight (5% BF) for 9 months of the year.
5. I devoted a lot of mental energy to learning how to train well, to actually executing the training well, to learn how to race and actually performing on race day. And, I paid attention to an inordinate amount of seemingly never-ending small details which might add up to improvement: tires size and shape, pre race meals, in race fueling, race clothing, colling tatics on hot days, this list of such obsessions had become endless.
6. My family became less important, more through attrition than my own effort. My last parent died at age 89 in 2004, my two older children were gone from home, out of college or just about ready to graduate, my youngest, about to graduate from high school. My wife developed a growing success of her own in photographic journalism. So they all seemed to need me less.
I realised by IM CDA in 2007 that I was addicted to Ironman racing, and I enjoyed my success. But RIch is correct, success at that level is only possible, I believe, by a narrowing of focus and the development of a true obsession. That became apparent to me in the immediate aftermath of my harrowing accident in Sept 2010. My main thoughts were not around how severely I was injured, only about how I could recover as fast as possible the fitness I had at the time of the accident.
This is all meant to be either a warning or an invitation. I agree with Rich's notion that if you want to get to the "extreme pointy end" of your AG in our sport, it requires a narrowness of focus and committment of time, energy, and respources that probably doesn't allow for "balance" in one's life. So it pays (a) to be in a place in your life (work, family, $) where your can be unbalanced without risk to yourself, others, and your relationship with them and (b) to highly value the potential reward, which is pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of life.
I'd like to say that I've "recovered" from that obsession/addiction. But that's clearly not true; just look at my sig. line below. I've changed my goal from "Finish" IM CDA to "Test my Fitness". I can't stomach the idea of not going as hard as I can in any race I do.
BTW, I quit looking at what my AG does to qualify for anything, too depressing. I might have a sub 11 in me, but, I highly doubt there's a qualifying 9:3something in this beat up body. Let me just get faster and kick everybody's ass that I can, and I'll be happy with that.
All:
This is a great discussion, and one that has been more or less flowing in a handful of EN threads, also on other places on the web and among those that I train with.
Rich makes very good points, and I fully agree with the winnowing of the fields in M35-50 or 55 AGs from observation. Historically, I've been happy to 'age up' so I can be the youngest in the next AG when I went from 30-34 up to 35s and again up to 40s -- but looking at M45 has been sobering.
My take is that at least the M35-55 AGs in LC (70.3 and IM) races have more or less devolved into 3 groups of people:
(1) the 'one and done' or bucket list group. It is admittedly a cliche, but is true and you see it in the back 1/2 or so of these AG fields. These folks are rightly proud finishers, but don't factor in the overall
(2) the pointy end foliks. Largely in my observation populated by those described in this thread, incl. ex- pros, retired athletes from other endurance sports, and those on the cusp of being so (or able and willing to organize their lives around triathlon for a significant part of the year). These are the people fighing for AG podium, KQ and WC slots
(3) the semi-serious, but constrained group, which I think would apply to most AGers, and ceratinly those in EN who are looking to make life-balance decisions with tri as one component and maximize ROI.
The challenge, as a business, that I see is how you keep the (3) group in the sport. (1) will always be there, but are not generally repeat customers for WTC. (2) will always be there too - but they aren't numerous enough (vs a whole age pool) to support the WTC business model ... its the (3)s who spend the most $$$, travel with their families, make an IM a destination/vacation thing.
My candid observation from having spent a number of years at the pointy end in another endurance sport and having been very competitive in SC tri in my AGs within the last decade is that you can't go from (3) to (2) unless you make the kinds of sactifices Al and Rich are talking about in this thread. It is unquestionably a choice, but it takes a long term view and incredible focus and committment (and the right genetics) of personal energy, $$$ and all the rest.
I would add that this reason is I think the most prevalent one behind why people who have been in the sport for a long time (10-20+yrs) start dropping out in the 50s or so and beyond. They can't or won't make those trade-offs and so it isnt fun anymore for some people. Add to that that if you do try to make the leap, it can lead to injury or other chronic issues, let alone the massive expenditure of SAUs (!) - and you can see how things would segment.
I think it will be interesting to see whether WTC, et al spot this trend and care about it or not. The demographics of the M and F 35-55 are in the sweet spot for the sport in terms of relatively free time and disposable income, so you'd think that there would be at least some effort to address it, but not sure I see that going on.
Very good discussion all. Interested in what others think on this point as it has been occupying my thoughts lately.
Tim,
Good thoughts.
I think from the business end, WTC is still pretty solid because Groups 1 and 3 make up about 98% of the field in any AG, even M35-60+. Group 2 is probably the top 20 guys in 35-39, top 15 in 40-45, top 8-10 in 50-54, etc, x 8 US IM's, plus these guys are scattered over the HIM races as well. The rub is that this small cadre is probably given/demands/receives an inordinate amount of attention because of who they are, the visibility they have in the local communities, etc. Finally, some of these guys become coaches and the subsequent training and extreme focus model perpetuates itself.
To extend your Groups 1-3 model, I'd like to add a time progression that I've seen across hundreds of athletes, including myself:
That progession above describes me from 2000 through 2004 -- I struggled through an IMWI season in '04 but rallied a bit for a good race at IMCDA'05, won my AG at WF, went 10:02 at IMCDA. I then took ~3yrs off (I raced WF on my wedding day in '06
) until IMCDA'08...and another three years off, ending now as I ramp up for IMWI this year. As I look at the results in my AG in recent races and recognize names, I see this cadre of Group 2's who haven't taken the breaks I have. Whateva, I'm not skeered, this is all just a game, for me anyway 
I think that some of the pushback against the EN training/coaching model that we see in places like Slowtwitch is due to a small handful of Group 2's, Group 2 Wannabee's, Group 3's in their 3rd or 4th season of serious training not so much pushing back against the method, or the idea, but rather against our way not fitting into the lifestyle they have or want to have. I was once in that space of 5-6hr Saturday rides, 4-5hr Sunday rides, 18-25hrs per week, big volume weekends with training partners, racing a lot, etc. I've since learned that this is a lifestyle first, a training model second. We have 4yrs of experience and results in here that say you can acheive better results on 7-16hrs per week (ie, a full EN season as OS + in season training plan) as you can on 12-20hrs/wk (traditional base training out season + traditional IM training). In my opinion, if you chose to train 18-20hrs/wk when a large group of people over here are training 14-16hrs and getting better results for it, you're making a lifestyle choice first, a training method selection decision second.
I'm not saying that we're 100% right and "they" are 100% wrong, but remember that everything you do here as an EN athlete is based on the direct experience that PnI have with doing it the other way -- which is often the model of "endurance training as lifestyle, sometimes taken to unrealistic extremes."
And the tone that PnI have worked to establish in EN -- respect earned through knowledge and helping teammates vs speed and talent, low volume, high intensity, get it done and get on with your life, Tour of California, the challenges we try to fire up, etc -- is a result of our observation of these progressions among endurance athletes and our desire to create a team that attracts the people we prefer to work with: well-balanced people who want to train efficiently and get on with their lives and not bust out the ruler with each other over stuff that just doesn't matter.
Thanks Rich and all for the thoughts.
After my St. George experience this year, I've a lot of processing to do. Disappointing day when stacked up against my time goals but satisfying when factoring in the heat, course, hydration, illness, mental, and nutrition issues I had to overcome. Not quite sure what happened on the bike but first race I kept running the whole time on the run.
Seems like if I had come into the sport 2-4 years ago, the Kona goal may have been possible. Currently though, the times are just getting farther away faster. Regensburg in three months. Then probably hang up Ironman for a while. I train pretty seriously but can't give up everything else in my life at this point: traveling, marriage, extended family, other outdoor activities, recreational cycling, career change, etc. Having grown up on Maui, getting to Kona might be especially special. But, factoring in all, I don't know that another 1-3 years of Ironman training, to the exclusion of most of everything else, is the healthy thing to do.
p.s. Where should I stick my race report? And coach, I will email my last race sim and race power files to get some thoughts on those. Thanks.
I have some random thoughts on this. I am 46 and not at the pointy end of things but want to be and think I have the potential. I desire to qualify for Kona. I don't want to lose myself in the process. So, I am on the IM every 2-3 year plan. The in-between years are for getting faster or working on my weaknesses all while devoting less overall time to training. I think this is a good strategy and am optimistic it will pay off for me in the long run.
Matt. Sounds like a reasonable approach.
@ Rich: Good analysis. I like the progression, and it makes sense if you look at the typical progression of people through the categories adopted above in the thread ...
Do your first IM, goal to finish and if you do better than expected, then esp. on your timeline, after 2 yrs you get into Group 3. If you're genetically gifted and have the time and inclination, $$$ and life flexibility, maybe you get into Group 2 after what 3-5 yrs overall. Very consistent witih Gladwell's observations on how long it takes to 'master' a task - If you were to train for 5 yrs at 700-1000 hrs a year (old skool as you'd say), then you'd be significantly along the road to mastery and IMO had better darn well be really good at the thing (whatever it is) thatr you have been doing that much of. It is a terrible IMO price to pay - you'll end up possibly broke, injured, unemployed and potentially divorced, etc. Bad juju for sure.
Further to your point about perpetuation, I think that is certainly the case. Many of the M40-50 AG top FOPers are coaches. Very common to see them promoting their coaching business through race results/performance. The obvious flaw, of course, is that not all of their clients have the time/genetics/drive/etc. to do what they do day-in-day-out for years to get to that level (let alone stay there) -- but that's a whole 'nother thread. It is understandable to use that vehicle as promotional material, and its natural for the coaches themselves to sell around that point ('do what I do, and you can be like me on raceday ...'), and it risks detracting from the sport on several levels.
Thinking about it, I agree with you on the WTC business model point. They are still selling out races. I haven't looked at the data, but as idle curiosity, wonder whether the baby boom moving through the AGs now (40-55) is leaving a trail of smaller AG fields in younger groups now, simply as an artifact of smaller pool. I am guessing no b/c tri is still a relatively fringe/inaccessible sport for many, but perhaps 5 yrs from now we might see a trend.
@Matt, I agree w/ Robin that this approach can work. I have a couple of friends who do IM every 3-4 yrs when they age-up. I'm not an expert at this, but I've enjoyed the HIM distance a lot more in years when I haven't done IM. It's much more manageable time committment and doesn't take you totally out of the game.
You probably already do this, but those 'off-years' are a great time to do other cool stuff with the fitness, focus on a single sport for a bit, work on a weakness w/i your tri execution, etc. You can have a lot of fun racing SC 10-12 times a year.
@ ;Matt on IMWI, do you think it could be impacted by the potential absence of current year KQ people - since it has slots only for the following year and also anyone who's racing in HI likely would not be doing WI in the same season?
Asking b/c there certainly seems to be a trend toward faster fields in earlier races that have IM and HIM WC slots (Oceanside, CdA, LP) and AZ (b/c people can do that after HI and get a slot for next year on this year's fitness/work) vs Lousville and Canada, among others, where the field are (at the pointy end) a little less dense.
@Jennifer, I'm not surprised as women seem to be smarter in general than us and, in my experience, less likely to get totally whack about training and racing. Y'all, for the most part, usually have your priorities in line
.
@Robin, look for an email from us later today or tomrrow.
I go to ST and see a lot of people bitching about WTC -- # and expense of the races, size of the field, drafting, blah, blah, and more. Then I go to 4-6x IM's per year since about 2002 and I see that, for the most part, athletes and their families are having a great time and, probably more importantly, coming back to race again and again.
Just to be clear on my confessions above, I am no longer advocating for myself (or anyone else) emulating the volume of my years 2004-2009. Below are my training hours by month for 2009 and 2010. I began using the EN model in part in mid 09, and full time by 12-09. Note that I did fewer hours after coming to EN, with a better outcome: on a much warmer day in June, 2010, I went 11:36 @ CDA, compared to 11:42 the year before. And even though I didn't get to prove it in a long race, I knew from my short course racing I was in better shape in Sept '10 than the year. I clearly didn't need all those hours I spent slogging away on my bike or in the pool. This year, I'll find out how low I can go. I'm bascially doing the OS until six weeks before CDA, then six weeks of IM training with a little extra biking thrown in 'cause, as Rich says, that's my lifestyle choice.
There are reasons other than life balance for busy family/work I have for likeing EN plans: coming off injury, getting older and not able to handle the big loads day after day - doing less and getting the same results fills my needs at this point in my life and athletic career.
One final note: the harder you train, the more you need to rest, and that is sometimes a time burden as well - skipping the drinks, going home from the night out too early, watching too much TV, etc.
@Tim, IMWI is know as being for being the least competitive IM race in north america for exactly that reason. The true point end of the field don't go as they have much better things to be doing in Sept. Now with the Vegas 70.3 champs the same weekend as IMWI my prediction is that next year IMWI will be even less competitive as any pro or AGer that wants a chance at getting on a world championship podium will be in vegas and/or kona... not WI.
My guess is the ironman wisconsin pro prize money and points gets lowered to the point that it isn't worth much at all.
That said, there are people (like me) that really like WI becuase I'm on the every other year Kona plan, so I can try for my spot at WI for the next year. That gives me a full year to prepare for Kona, or scramble to get another spot if I don't get one in WI.
LV/Canada is interesting as I some people are starting to thing two IM in 4-6 weeks actually works well. So truly pointy end folks can KQ at one of those races, recover, do one more block of training, and do hawaii.
I know that if I do not get a Kona slot at IMWI, I would be very tempted to give LV a shot for that reason....not to mention it's good heat acclimation for Kona. Of course, now that 70.3 world champ is in september this could change as well.
I'm definitely one of those "gotta make it work with a real job, wife, and 3 kids" kind of guys. Definitely in Tim's Group 3. :-) I enjoy endurance sport and doing well as I can, and I work pretty hard at it. Probably I am a top 10% guy who can occasionally make it to a top 5% performance with a good day. I totally get the point about what it takes to keep guys like me in the game.
In open marathon, qualifying for Boston is one of those very difficult, but do-able things. I think that's the level of accomplishment that's soon going to be missing in IM-distance racing. If my ceiling is top 20 at a WTC event, it takes a lot of motivation to want to do that over and over again with the time commitment involved...at least at the level that you really push trying to get better and better. For now, I'm still improving measurably, and that serves as motivation. But realistically, I know that it would have to be a weird combination of small group statistics and a great day for me to ever qualify for one of these championships.
It's disappointing - but probably realistic - that getting to that extra-pointy end probably requires doing something I cannot....or at least choose not to because I value my family too much. But that is the way of the world.
Well said, William. I'm right there with you.
There are a lot of us hanging with you! If I only had 10 more hours per week
I wonder about that also. I think I am going to do a Rev 3 race next year.
http://outsideonline.com/adventure/travel-ta-201106-doping-cyclist-sidwcmdev_156148.html
Well if your theory about the top AGers is correct, then there is a very easy solution to this problem. You just need to buckle down and start putting down a six-pack a night every night except for Fridays and Saturday when you need to put in some BIG 12-18 pack days. Given 8-12 years of steady commitment, the hangovers should be a thing of the past!
My theory on how to get to the "pointy end" is to just pick the right races. The last 2 years I've consistently finished in the top 3 of my AG in both the Perham, MN Average Jo triathlon and the Fergus Falls Hoot Lake triathlon. I sort of think of myself as the Mancona of the western MN lakes region sprint series! I'm pretty sure with a bit more work I could win my AG and if the weather was bad or this one guy had some "bad luck" getting to the race on time I might actually win it. Then I would retire.