Alan Couzens did an analysis in 2010 of this issue, and concluded that you need to be able to sustain an output of about 230 watts (or the run equivalent therof) for 9.5 hours based on estimating the work done over the course of the day. Here's a link to his analysis. I am not sufficiently versed in the science to judge whether his approach is correct or if it supports his conclusions. But it sounds pretty close to what Coach P produced at Lake Placid. http://alancouzens.blogspot.com/2010/03/what-does-it-take-to-qualify.html
That's a pretty solid piece from Alan, and really hits it on the head...I was pretty much on the bubble with a 9:56....but then again I was at 81kgs, not 65. But yes to 230pNorm and the 17:30-ish 5k. Them's just the facts...
@Patrick: I am/was actually planning for Wisconsin in 2012...but with a KQ now looking very unlikely I might have to reconsider...Looking forward to the Challenge series launching their own WC...
Wow...WTC is pushing the curve even faster. RunTri.com has posted a complete table of Kona slots by race with the 2011-2012 comparisons. They are still projecting an increase of 70 spaces at Kona, so that's probably put pressure on WTC to get the numbers down for Kona 2012. So IMWI takes 15 off the 2012 World Championship. It will be interesting to see if Melbourne and New York drop from 75 spots after their inaugural races next year...or will keep them since they are designated "championships." Runtri also put out an analysis of the roll-down situation for the M40-44 at Ironman Canada over the past 10 years. The overall trend is that the average time to guarantee yourself a slot has dropped consistently and that rolldowns don't go very far compared to the past. With the new reduced quotas, they will become even more rare. Not to take anything away from folks in the past, but consider that IM Lake Placid had 105 slots not too many years ago and will drop to only 50 in 2012. It's a whole new ballgame.
@Paul - i'm actually ok with them setting up a championship series and giving more slots to those races, heck I'm even fine if some IM don't have any slots. My issue is that they need to start telling people what they are doing, before we give them $600+ dollars a year in advance and then all they say is "sorry for the confusion" or we don't allow refunds.
Agreed x2. I signed on (late) for WI precisely because they had advertised 65 slots, where other remaining races in '11 had the new 50 allotment. I know i have no right to expect a spot, but if I'm on the bubble (albeit the 'outer bubble'), it makes for a very different set of rules.
By the looks of it (runtri.com) Germany seems to be the place to qualify (100 places)....Unfortunately in the land of 'überbikers, this still means a qualifying time of 9:36 in the M35-39 AG :-(
Guess there must have been a lot of complaints! IMWI, IMFL and IMAZ will probably finish 2011 with 65 slots, then drop to 50 for 2012...so this will probably be the last year for a good shot if you are on the bubble.
I just saw this while browsing the IM Canada 2011 results in my AG (these are the 2nd and 3rd place finishers):
384
11:18:41
Tout
Richard
KINCARDINE
ON
CAN
2/64
16
1:19:36
3:36
3
5:46:32
5:54
3
4:03:05
385
11:18:45
Legge
Murray
RICHMOND HILL
ON
CAN
3/64
13
1:18:00
4:16
6
5:58:04
2:29
1
3:55:57
There were two slots for this AG, and these guys were 4 seconds apart, with Mr. Legge trying to run down Mr. Tout - it must have been exciting/frustrating coming down that finishing straight.
While I may be a few hours out from qualifying for anything other than the title "Finisher", I've been browsing through this thread and there. It's great that the WTC wants to make Kona a race of truly the elite but I'm not sure that's really what they're doing. By lowering the number of slot for existing races and giving so many to new races they are clearly saying to those on the bubble that they either get faster or sign up for every new race. Thus ensuring that the new venue will have a full roster.
Or they are hoping to see an increase in lottery entries which is almost free $$ for them.
I just saw this while browsing the IM Canada 2011 results in my AG (these are the 2nd and 3rd place finishers):
384
11:18:41
Tout
Richard
KINCARDINE
ON
CAN
2/64
16
1:19:36
3:36
3
5:46:32
5:54
3
4:03:05
385
11:18:45
Legge
Murray
RICHMOND HILL
ON
CAN
3/64
13
1:18:00
4:16
6
5:58:04
2:29
1
3:55:57
There were two slots for this AG, and these guys were 4 seconds apart, with Mr. Legge trying to run down Mr. Tout - it must have been exciting/frustrating coming down that finishing straight.
Damn ... the battle of the Ontarians comes down to a sprint!
While I may be a few hours out from qualifying for anything other than the title "Finisher", I've been browsing through this thread and there. It's great that the WTC wants to make Kona a race of truly the elite but I'm not sure that's really what they're doing. By lowering the number of slot for existing races and giving so many to new races they are clearly saying to those on the bubble that they either get faster or sign up for every new race. Thus ensuring that the new venue will have a full roster.
Or they are hoping to see an increase in lottery entries which is almost free $$ for them.
Speaking to the bolded part...
What they really want is... way for it... more of our $$$. Just about everything they do has money as the root of the reason. I don't fault them for that. They are a business after all, and one trying to bump up the value of the business as fast as possible to satisfy their VC partners. I'm not a WTC hater at all. I do their events and have been very satisfied. I just see them for who they really are. Look at the HITS series that's trying to start up. They plan on really catering to the athlete. Guess what? They'll be gone in a season or less. Rev3 also caters much more to the athlete than WTC. I'm confident they're losing money and their deep pocket investors will only put up with that for so long before they demand change. The WTC model works. Good, bad or indifferent.
Comments
http://alancouzens.blogspot.com/2010/03/what-does-it-take-to-qualify.html
153 lbs, 5'10"
vDot ~ 59/60
FTP ~ 310, ~ 4.4 w/kg
That about right?
I am at about 57 and 3.8 right now...so, have some work to do!
@Matt: I fear it will be a depressing read :-)
Agreed x2. I signed on (late) for WI precisely because they had advertised 65 slots, where other remaining races in '11 had the new 50 allotment. I know i have no right to expect a spot, but if I'm on the bubble (albeit the 'outer bubble'), it makes for a very different set of rules.
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/cgi-bin/gforum.cgi?post=3503037;sb=post_latest_reply;so=ASC;forum_view=forum_view_collapsed;page=last;
I just saw this while browsing the IM Canada 2011 results in my AG (these are the 2nd and 3rd place finishers):
There were two slots for this AG, and these guys were 4 seconds apart, with Mr. Legge trying to run down Mr. Tout - it must have been exciting/frustrating coming down that finishing straight.
Or they are hoping to see an increase in lottery entries which is almost free $$ for them.
Damn ... the battle of the Ontarians comes down to a sprint!
Speaking to the bolded part...
What they really want is... way for it... more of our $$$. Just about everything they do has money as the root of the reason. I don't fault them for that. They are a business after all, and one trying to bump up the value of the business as fast as possible to satisfy their VC partners. I'm not a WTC hater at all. I do their events and have been very satisfied. I just see them for who they really are. Look at the HITS series that's trying to start up. They plan on really catering to the athlete. Guess what? They'll be gone in a season or less. Rev3 also caters much more to the athlete than WTC. I'm confident they're losing money and their deep pocket investors will only put up with that for so long before they demand change. The WTC model works. Good, bad or indifferent.