Question for the Ironman Tacticians
So...
Was talking to P today about race tactics, IMWI, etc. First of all, I'm looking for a top 8 (Kona?) to top 5 (podium?) finish at IMWI. From last years times that's about a 9:55 to 9:45 finish. But I'm basically a complete opposite case from Patrick: very strong swimmer, cyclist with good run endurance but not the speed I see from the guys in 1-10th place. Looking at my numbers now, past race files, etc, I'm seeing, roughly:
- 53:30-54:30 swim
- 5:07-11 bike
- 3:36-40 run
- ~6-7' total T times.
I'll very likely come off the bike 1st or 2nd in the AG, worst place maybe 3rd? I'm just not going to run anyone down with my run split, not in this AG and the guys at the pointy pointy end are way out of my league on the run. So basically I'm a position to do my thing and wait for guys to come to me. So...
- If going for time, treat it like a total TT, ignore everyone, run my marathon and hope I've got something to respond with I find myself in a race in the last 4-5 miles with someone who's a faster runner than me, or...
- Do my 6 miles at E+30", then, instead of dropping into 8:10-15's, drop into in 8:20-25's, holding something in reserve. 10-15" slower than goal pace for ~14 miles (mile 6 to about mile 20) = about 3-3.5' slower than goal. But, theoretically, if I do find myself in a running race in the last 4-5 miles I've got something in reserve. Could I go from 8:25's to 7:50-8's and/or put on some surges into a guy who's been working hard all day to catch people vs me who's been waiting all day?
I could ask Joanne to sit at the T2 exit and tell me what place I'm in when I start the run, then keep track from there.
That said, my only two goals for IMWI are:
- Go under 10hrs
- Run faster than 3:40
Bonus if that's Kona, podium, or anything else. Anyway, I know from experience that a lot of this goes out the window when you're in a nightmare out there on the course but it's an interesting tactical discussion. What say you?
Comments
Rich - I'll shoot back at you the advice you gave long ago, and that's served me well ever since: commit to a run time coming out of T2, and do whatever you need to to make that happen. And remember my mantra down there in my sig line.
The problem with trying to be tactical late in the race is that if someone is catching you and passing you, they are a faster (IM) runner. And if they are doing that at or after mile 22, they probably are executing their race well. Speaking from the other side of that fence, I've passed a lot of guys in the last 3 miles of IMs and half marathons, and not once has anyone ever come back at me - they tried, and stayed close, but it's never happened. So good on ya, mate, if you can do it (pass those other guys; I KNOW you could pass me!)
It also might pay to put a few controlled pushes into the bike IF there are sections where you can get a big ROI based on William's study on wind, hills, and power.
Find your run pace early, like in mile 2, and hold on.
I don't care what the dude I'm chasing is doing until the last couple miles. I'm not going to speed up or slow down for YOU until I am in a place where I am realistically picturing the end of the race for me. If I catch you, I figure I'm going to pass you now, or when you run out of gas on that silly attempt to pick it up as I go by.
Now maybe that's because I'm not really the racer that the real pointy end guys are. But I suggest there's no reason for you to be going slower than you intend to go. If the other guys are smart, they'll probably follow some version of your advice about not "racing" until some point late in the race, too. If you're going to go slower, only do it if it will make your overall day faster.
Bottom line suggestion from me is simple geometry:
If the other dude is basically a stronger runner than you, you want him catching you as close to the finish line as possible. If it's short, maybe you can out-execute or out-gut him, but if it's long...he's a better runner than you; who are you going to put your money on?
Rich,
I fall in to the norm and figure you should run your race, especially given you two goals. Holding back for a foot race when you don't have the speed is asking for trouble. Those that are going to blow up won't catch you and those that are faster will, just hold off as many as you can till you cross the line..
Gordon
You don't need people telling your position you don't need that in your head. You need them to yell at you to keep your focus and get the job done. You said it already "Ignore Everyone"
Like the others have said - listen to your own advice: ignore everyone, focus on YOUR race. If you execute your best race and leave nothing on the table, you will have the best opportunity to podium/KQ. Holding back to wait for potentially stronger runners and see if you can out run them is just stoopid. Like Matt says - find your pace early and hang on.
Be smart out there and you'll do well. Good enough? Don't know.... but don't let Coach P take all the glory in Kona.... I think you both need to be there too. Show us how it is done!
All: thanks for the advice! Looks like I need to sit down, shut up, stop thinking and do what I'm told -- by myself
Unleash hell, sir.
Also, guessing you are feeling a little pressure on getting to Kona wth P's success and the increased exposure and success of EN. Hope you know that the majority of us are in EN not because our coaches are Kona qualifiers, but because of the knowledge and camaraderie you and P bring to EN. So do your best to hit your goal, but also enjoy the adventure and know we'll be here either way...
the advantage you have on the "runners" is that they are chasing you all day, so make them chase you and stick to option 1.
Once they catch you, there is no way you will out surge them, not gonna happen, period. Why play their game if you don't have to. Like Al, i am very confident that no one that I have caught in 70.3 or IM run has ever surged and passed me...they have tried but usually within a quarter to half mile they fall off the back. I've raced two 70.3s this year and in both cases Ive been in this situation and dropped the guy I caught, and these were legit runners.
There will be multiple guys in your AG probably running 7:30 pace for the entire run (and at least one that will be closer to 7:00 pace). Therefore, let's assume you average 8:00 pace, that leaves a 13' to 26' gap. My suggestion is to do what you can to be at least 13' ahead of them by T2, then hold on as long as you can.
You will get your kona and/or podium spot by out swimming most of your competition by about 10' and then out riding them by 5'-10'.
Sure Macca pulled this off, but keep in mind that he is consistantly one of the top 5 runners in the sport, so we are talking a few seconds per mile difference between him and his competitors.
Play to your advantage and get as far in front as possible. Make them get out of their comfort zone to catch you. Your best bet is they either A)try to catch you too soon, therefore running to hard to early and blow up or B)when it gets tough at mile 18, 20, whatever, they give up becuase you are still out of site and they can't rally to catch you.
I've said it before: as someone racing you in 40-44, I think you should aim for a 4:30 bike and REALLY hammer the hills. More time standing on the pedals, the better. And try new things on race week: maybe we can grab gas station Sushi the night before.
Seriously, my advice is paint by the numbers. But more than that, I would suggest that you completely reframe the event from one where you are "racing other people" to "racing to a time."
-IMHO, the "other people" model offers way too many variables that are outside of your control and can have you making tactical descision on race day that are not aligned with your fitness.
-As well, it's a crapshoot as to who shows on the day: unless you have an invitation-only field, the chances are fair that joey uberbiker, johnny ex-pro, or jimmy Olympian are also in your AG, and there ain't nothing you can do about it.
-Last, I don't know how AG racing can actually happen in the heat of battle: unless you have an exact idea of who, how many, SWOT, etc etc of the field, there are still enough people passing , being passed, and littering the course in the last miles of an IM run that you simply don't know where you are placing until it's all over. If I'm getting passed by a faster runner in the last miles, or even the last half of the run for that matter, it's just too much guessing to identify if he (or she!) is my AG, is a strong runner, is on lap #1 or #2, or whatever. Even in at most lucid, I'd have trouble identifying who's who on a course. Add the bizarro world of being completely shagged by a day of near-readline racing and high arousal, and it's pretty much impossible. Even with the best spotter(s).
I prefer instead your closing comments as a way to frame the whole day: if you are racing, you're racing a time based on past race results would normally yield a KQ / Podium. I know ... while past performance is no guarantee of future results, it's still a pretty good bet that a 9:45 will get you what you're after.
What Socie said. It's gonna be a mental game out there on the run. Head down and do YOUR race. Stay in your box.
All:
Thanks again for the advice. When it comes right down to it, I don't think I can be bothered to race, not on the run anyway, which is my weakest leg. I think I would do better to just put the blinders on and do my thing. However, I think I do have the cycling and the climbing legs, w/kg, and the run endurance to ride a .74-75, find a couple minutes on some of the hills on the second loop, then execute the run in a manner we've proven to work for hundreds of athletes.
TJ, thanks for that. This has always been just a game for me. If it's fun, do it. If it's not fun, don't do it. Living, breathing, walking, talking, speaking and coaching IM training racing 24/7 for years and years makes my own training and racing quite different, I expect, from your experience. It can add quite a bit of stuff that can make it not fun at times
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But I've enjoyed working the puzzle for the last few months, like back in the day but I think I'm much better at it now, and regardless of how WI turns out, I can see myself continuing to work the puzzle through 2013, when I'll be 45 and at the bottom of a new age group. I've always thought I have a 9:35 in me and the great run results that guys like Gleason and others have had has motivated me to build a 3:25 IM marathon over the next couple years. I have a 53-55' swim I can take out of the closet when I need to and I know how to build and maintain a 5:08-10 bike. Just gotta keep running through the winter and not put on the winter coat like I usually do
If not Dave Tallo will be stalking you down and take you at the tape for that final Kona slot!
" But I've enjoyed working the puzzle for the last few months, like back in the day but I think I'm much better at it now, "
Your damn right your better at it now. Your looking at the competition sizing yourself up and working on a strategy to kick ass.
You are at that level of triathlon where you can apply those principals of being strategic and a tactician in your own right. You have done the research on the numbers now and have some great tools in your tool box with a Team here to back you up, you go man, figure it out and then bring us along in the education process. Like TJ said we aren't going anywhere. I also like like the idea of having a spotter at T2 to give you a heads up and perhaps at mile 13, 18, etc you have more sense than to run yourself into the ground with that information. At that point it's all a matter of how much darkness you can handle.
Can you ride a .76-.78 and still hold on to a 3:45? Will that net you an extra 10 -15 minutes on the bike? Yes, it's a 'riskier' strategy, but if you're throwing down for a Kona spot, you've gotta play to your strengths.
C'mon man, TJ held .80 and still ran well...
:-)
Mike, yeah, that's the stuff that's been keeping me up at night :-)
Most notably, I rode a 5:10-11 in '04 on the course at 226w Pnorm but with a VI of 1.08 = 208w Pavg got me around that course in 5:10-11. No aero helmet, bottles on the back, I'll probably be about 4-5lb lighter on race day and my dumbass was probably riding with a Tufo strip in the tires back then...oy.
At what looks like where my FTP will be on race day, I can/could ride between 224 and 229w Pnorm, FTP of 300-305w and IF of .74-75 but with a MUCH lower VI of 1.03-04 yielding average watts of 218w vs the 208 of 2004. That's a LOT more watts pushing me around the course this year, but this time with a race helmet, very clean setup, better tires, a good bit leaner, MUCH better use of the terrain to maintain speed, etc. I'm pretty psyched about that.
I also look back at my races and see that back in the day not only did I not have the run endurance I have now but our whole E+30", E-pace, VDot stuff is lightyears ahead of how I/we raced back then. In fact, as I've been going through my race and RR files from '03-'06, I've been meaning to write a post called "Oh, the things we've learned!", because I can clearly see all of the things I/we didn't know back then as a power training and racing community
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My $0.02 as to your conundrum -- go with strategy over tactics. MG's rephrasing of the question will help you define the strategy. Tactics will come into play if you should find someone trying to pass you at Mile 20: 'Do I kick it into high-gear to stay with this doode?'
Rich,
Not that it is an easy way to go, but with a strong swim and bike you could try to pull a Normann Stadler and hang on!
Thanks,
JN
It's a game. (R. Strauss)
You have nothing to prove and nothing to lose. Your Tri CV is loaded, and you're an authority on the game. Dude, you're playing with house money. Any pressure you feel is self inflicted. You'll execute perfectly. If something goes wrong, you'll OODA. As the guy said to D Socie "Whatever is wrong we can fix it." You're like Spicoli's dad, you've got an awesome set of tools.
You've monitored your way to mile 20. You've got a 10k to run. No more counting pace or nutrition. You let fly and risk the blow up. You'll think of the runs Gleason and P Mac pulled off and the hurt locker they were in and you'll find some run cadence and some heels to sit on and pace you and you'll leave it all out there.
As a career MOP guy, it's all easy for me to say.
Play loose. Riley could care less.
Your goal should be to get off the bike first. You can only let 7 guys catch you. As you say, you have great endurance and no speed. Get off the bike and run a couple 9' miles then drop down to 8:30 and hold the F on. If you feel great at mile 18 or 20 drop it even more.
Here's what I think you should target.
00:54 Swim
5:00 Bike
3:45 Run
00:08 T1 and T2
That gives you a 9:47 which should place you in a Kona slot.
Good luck.
Thanks all.
I've done some modeling that has me getting off the bike with about 280-285 TSS and 216-221w Pavg vs the 208w that got me a 5:10.
FYI....5hrs is friggin' fast on that course. My "could" vs "should" range is 5-5:10 and 5:00 would be a huge roll of the dice. Would be fun...if only I didn't have to run a marathon afterwards
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Take a page from the "Do as I say, not as I do" Handbook.
Execute like a race ninja saves a guy like me tons of time...all it does is hold you back. Go out there crush the bike with the pro's after your swim and hold on for dear life on the run. Put yourself in the position to "fight" for your KQ, not "run" for your KQ. Everyone hits "the wall" of crosses "the line", so when 40-44 AG guy # 5 passes you(if he does) your back is against a wall...you are a caged animal...what are you going to do about it???
Either strategy is going to hurt...that's because KQ race times hurt...that is all there is to it. The guy who finished 4th in your AG last year...59 swim, 520 bike, 315 marathon...sub 945...you need to beat that time on the bike and swim...not chase that run!!!
Now with that said....
SHUT UP AND RACE!!!
I'm now starting to get the feeling that people want to see me crush the bike, just to do it, then suffer like a dog on the run
. That hurts, BAD!! 