One thing to consider is what you sell: "There is no good bike without a good run" Just don't put yourself in a place where you get 50th in a quest to get 4th. Just my $0.02.
If this was a "what's see what I can do race" then I'd agree that it'd be interesting to see how high of an IF you could put out and still run a decent marathon. That being said, I think since (to me) it seems like this is a "let's take all the work I've put in the last two years and get to Kona race" and you ARE a strong biker and can put up very competitve numbers with your "should" you should stick to the gameplan. Especially since being a weaker runner you could blow up more spectacularly than expected since it's not your strong leg. Not to mention all the other "who knew that would happen" factors that come into play during an IM. I for one do not want to see a crabby coach R cause he screwed around with the tried and true gameplan during his taper cause he had a little too much time on his hands
To Rich's point there are typically 2-4 Age Groupers each year that can ride 5:00 at IMWI and still run a strong marathon...those dudes are studs that should be racing Pro but arn't for various reasons. Wisconsin is not the course to go for a could bike split as it wont be that impressive of a number anyway... do that in Flordia so you can at least brag about going 4:40 or something impressive when you are walking the marathon :-)
More RnP advice back to you: So, one of your one things should be to stay in your box, follow your plan, and set yourself up perfectly to own the last six miles of the marathon. Own. Like be ready to go into the mental deep fryer and charge your way up capital hill and around the square. Race starts at Mile 18.
If you want to poke around for "fun", here's a spreadsheet with multiple tabs that looks at the top 15 M40-44 finishers for 2006-2010. No calculator...just results. I inserted "Imaginary Rich" (from the first tab) to see where how he stacks up overall and in 2010. It would take me about 5 minutes to do the same for 35-39 (since you'll be racing some of those guys this year). Bottom line, 2010 was crazy fast compared to previous years - field getting deeper/faster, and depends who shows up I guess.
FYI, the fastest M40-44 T1 in the last 5 years was 4:59, and the average of the top 15 T1s for the last 5 years is 6:28. For T2, fastest is 1:33, average of top 15 for last 5 years is 3:09. So figure 9:37 for T1+T2 if you're "average fast", 6:31 if you're the fastest EVAR.
If you swim a 54:00, you'll have swum the 3rd fastest M40-44 time in the last 5 years for a top 15 finisher.
Similarly, if you ride a 5:09, you'll have rode the 9th fastest M40-44 time in the last 5 years for a top 15 finisher.
On the run...fast doodes will be chasing you...some of them will catch you.
Most of what I've read about tactics in an IM have focused around tactics on the bike - mainly as it relates to latching on for riding in a draft legal pack. On the run? Not so much.
There are two ways that people chasing you down are going to react "Oh shit, that's CoachR, no f'ing way I'm catching him" or "Shit, that's CoachR, I'm gonna chase that bastard down". Either way there's not much you can do about it.
Good luck...should be fun to watch no matter what you do!
FYI, the fastest M40-44 T1 in the last 5 years was 4:59, and the average of the top 15 T1s for the last 5 years is 6:28. For T2, fastest is 1:33, average of top 15 for last 5 years is 3:09. So figure 9:37 for T1+T2 if you're "average fast", 6:31 if you're the fastest EVAR.
FWIW, In 2009 I went 4:56 T1 + 1:55 T2 = 6:51 of transistions which was only the 19th fastest of the day. I even stopped and put sunblock and socks on and I was 723rd out of the water so I had a few people to run around. Rich should be able to go under 8 minutes even with a stop at the john as there will be no one else around in T1.
That said, my transistion will probably be slower this year as I seem to run better when I take T2 easy than when I sprint through it.
Man, looking at the T times...it just gets better . They don't seem to be very fast swimmers or transitioners in 40-44. I think I just found another 2'+ if I can just do what I did in '04 in T1 and speed up T2 a bit. I think all I did for T1'04 was just haul ass. Pretty sure I sprinted the whole thing and I'll have an empty enough transition that I can run out of my shoes to the bike mount line, lean bike against wall, etc.
I enjoyed reading this entire thread. Most of what I would add has already been said. However, I will add that it is pretty impressive that as a group we have a couple of coaches that are willing to lay out their plan and let us bang it around with them. It speaks to the quality and humility of what has been created here in the EN community and only reinforces my opinion that I made a great choice to join the team! Run your race Rich, and if you have enough in the tank to "twist the knob off" with a few miles to go then turn yourself inside out! Be confident that you have worked harder than the gifted athletes and make 'em come and get it. It takes a lot of heart to run somebody down late in an IM and they'll have to step out on the ledge to do it. I like your chances. Lace 'em up tight, take no prisoners.
All: thanks for the advice! Looks like I need to sit down, shut up, stop thinking and do what I'm told -- by myself
Now that is some good advice!
The problem with holding something in reserve during an IM is that it is likely not going to be there when you need it anyhow. This reminds me of when you hear discussions about the pro race and how different it is cause you have to ride with the pack or whatever the nonsense is. If you want to do well in an IM --no matter if you are one of the top ranked pros in the world or a BOP person -- I think that you will be best served by getting to the finish line in the shortest possible time. The way to get to the finish line in the shortest possible time is by executing as well as you can. Anytime you are worried about or doing anything different because of where you are in the race or what other people around you are doing you are likely boogering the execution and thereby not getting to the finish as fast as you can.
I have also never been passed back by anyone I have passed on the run in an IM or even an half IM that I am aware of. As Al suggested if someone runs by you at mile 22 you are likely toast so no use fighting it. If you for some reason have the ability to run faster than you currently are at mile 22 then why are you not running faster to begin with? If you have the mental ability to really pick it up in the last few miles to run down someone that passes you then maybe you are actually that special and unique snowflake we always hear about. A teeny bit of math to put it in perspective:
Lets say you are running in the fat part of your target and have a 3:35 split. That is a 8:12 pace. Chances are very good that over the last six miles you are going to be moving slower than that, maybe averaging 8:30 or so. Now lets say your pal Bobby who does not swim sub 60 and can't ride with you is running a 3:20. That is a 7:38 pace. Even if Bobby has slowed down a bit and is running say a 7:50 or 7:55 pace he is going to go by you at 30 plus seconds a mile faster and it will seem like you are standing still. No way you are going to respond to that for more than 30 seconds or so and if you do it is going to suck and likely cost you later.
In sum, swim and bike really really fast, settle into your pace as soon as you can on the run and hold on for dear life and then hope it is enough.
I think Chris is exactly right. Having been run down many, many times, even when I had a good run (for me), I can report that someone running 30 seconds a mile or more quicker than you will just blow by you. If that happens after mile 25 of the marathon, you might be able to pick up your pace to go with them for the last mile, but lasting more than a mile (and probably much less than a mile) will be almost impossible.
Rich, just read on ST that the number of slots for IMWI dropped from the advertised 65 to 50 for this year. Count on a couple of less slots in the M40-44 AG. Swim and bike like a mother and hold on for dear life during the run.
Just food for thought. At the LP roll down they originally posted the slot allocation as if there were 50 rather than 65. The difference was that at 50 there were 5 slots instead of 8 for 40-44 and 3 instead of 5 for 35-39.
Rich, just read on ST that the number of slots for IMWI dropped from the advertised 65 to 50 for this year. Count on a couple of less slots in the M40-44 AG. Swim and bike like a mother and hold on for dear life during the run.
Yep, I saw that.
Kona isn't really a goal for me. I want to bike the bike I know how to ride, run the run I know how to run and let the day sort itself out. If I start the first 4-6 miles of the run easy, drop into a pace I've rehearsed, and then hold that and/or slow down very, very little, and go under 10hrs as a result, I'll be happy with the day, regardless of the final placing. I'd like another couple years to build a 3:25-30 run.
Sorry, I didn't read everyone's response but here's my take:
I think the effort on the bike and early in the run should be dependent on conditions. I think the plan is different if conditions are ideal vs heat vs cold.
Oh, last thing... Don't walk the aid stations even if it's hot. I can't tell you how many guys I nailed taking their time at the aid stations at IMC this year. Even the best ones will lose their discipline in hot races.
Comments
More RnP advice back to you: So, one of your one things should be to stay in your box, follow your plan, and set yourself up perfectly to own the last six miles of the marathon. Own. Like be ready to go into the mental deep fryer and charge your way up capital hill and around the square. Race starts at Mile 18.
If you want to poke around for "fun", here's a spreadsheet with multiple tabs that looks at the top 15 M40-44 finishers for 2006-2010. No calculator...just results. I inserted "Imaginary Rich" (from the first tab) to see where how he stacks up overall and in 2010. It would take me about 5 minutes to do the same for 35-39 (since you'll be racing some of those guys this year). Bottom line, 2010 was crazy fast compared to previous years - field getting deeper/faster, and depends who shows up I guess.
FWIW, In 2009 I went 4:56 T1 + 1:55 T2 = 6:51 of transistions which was only the 19th fastest of the day. I even stopped and put sunblock and socks on and I was 723rd out of the water so I had a few people to run around. Rich should be able to go under 8 minutes even with a stop at the john as there will be no one else around in T1.
That said, my transistion will probably be slower this year as I seem to run better when I take T2 easy than when I sprint through it.
Matt, you likely got up the ramp a good bit faster than I will :-)
My WI transitions:
2002 -- 9:40 (yikes!!)
T1: SWIM-TO-BIKE 6:05
T2: BIKE-TO-RUN 3:35 <---- was definitely taking my time there! <br />
2004 -- 7:24
T1: SWIM-TO-BIKE 4:44
T2: BIKE-TO-RUN 2:37
Good point Matt. Here are the Top 20 T1's for everyone (excluding Pros) for the last 5 years:
Man, looking at the T times...it just gets better
. They don't seem to be very fast swimmers or transitioners in 40-44. I think I just found another 2'+ if I can just do what I did in '04 in T1 and speed up T2 a bit. I think all I did for T1'04 was just haul ass. Pretty sure I sprinted the whole thing and I'll have an empty enough transition that I can run out of my shoes to the bike mount line, lean bike against wall, etc.
Totally psyched I kicked Mancona's T1 ASS
I think the 1:34 T2 is Jim Hansen's from last year.
Correction: 1:38!
If you guys want to have some more fun how do you like Rich and my race with compare? Will I catch him and and if so at what mile marker?
Don't forget to run up the INSIDE of the helix
Matt will catch the coach at mile 140.7.
I will play the Matt v Rich Fantasy Fast Doodes Game.
Swim: Matt is 10' behind Rich
T1/T2: Even
Bike: Even
Run: Matt's avg pace at 45" faster, so mile 13
I hope I am in a condition to do the mental math if/when I see Matt and Rich on the run course.
I'll play.
I agree with Brian's predictions, except I think Matt will come off the bike 5 minutes ahead of Rich (Sorry Rich).
So, I'll say Mile 7.
Run your race Rich, and if you have enough in the tank to "twist the knob off" with a few miles to go then turn yourself inside out! Be confident that you have worked harder than the gifted athletes and make 'em come and get it. It takes a lot of heart to run somebody down late in an IM and they'll have to step out on the ledge to do it. I like your chances.
Lace 'em up tight, take no prisoners.
Now that is some good advice!
The problem with holding something in reserve during an IM is that it is likely not going to be there when you need it anyhow. This reminds me of when you hear discussions about the pro race and how different it is cause you have to ride with the pack or whatever the nonsense is. If you want to do well in an IM --no matter if you are one of the top ranked pros in the world or a BOP person -- I think that you will be best served by getting to the finish line in the shortest possible time. The way to get to the finish line in the shortest possible time is by executing as well as you can. Anytime you are worried about or doing anything different because of where you are in the race or what other people around you are doing you are likely boogering the execution and thereby not getting to the finish as fast as you can.
I have also never been passed back by anyone I have passed on the run in an IM or even an half IM that I am aware of. As Al suggested if someone runs by you at mile 22 you are likely toast so no use fighting it. If you for some reason have the ability to run faster than you currently are at mile 22 then why are you not running faster to begin with? If you have the mental ability to really pick it up in the last few miles to run down someone that passes you then maybe you are actually that special and unique snowflake we always hear about. A teeny bit of math to put it in perspective:
Lets say you are running in the fat part of your target and have a 3:35 split. That is a 8:12 pace. Chances are very good that over the last six miles you are going to be moving slower than that, maybe averaging 8:30 or so. Now lets say your pal Bobby who does not swim sub 60 and can't ride with you is running a 3:20. That is a 7:38 pace. Even if Bobby has slowed down a bit and is running say a 7:50 or 7:55 pace he is going to go by you at 30 plus seconds a mile faster and it will seem like you are standing still. No way you are going to respond to that for more than 30 seconds or so and if you do it is going to suck and likely cost you later.
In sum, swim and bike really really fast, settle into your pace as soon as you can on the run and hold on for dear life and then hope it is enough.
I think Chris is exactly right. Having been run down many, many times, even when I had a good run (for me), I can report that someone running 30 seconds a mile or more quicker than you will just blow by you. If that happens after mile 25 of the marathon, you might be able to pick up your pace to go with them for the last mile, but lasting more than a mile (and probably much less than a mile) will be almost impossible.
Yep, I saw that.
Kona isn't really a goal for me. I want to bike the bike I know how to ride, run the run I know how to run and let the day sort itself out. If I start the first 4-6 miles of the run easy, drop into a pace I've rehearsed, and then hold that and/or slow down very, very little, and go under 10hrs as a result, I'll be happy with the day, regardless of the final placing. I'd like another couple years to build a 3:25-30 run.
Sorry, I didn't read everyone's response but here's my take:
I think the effort on the bike and early in the run should be dependent on conditions. I think the plan is different if conditions are ideal vs heat vs cold.
Oh, last thing... Don't walk the aid stations even if it's hot. I can't tell you how many guys I nailed taking their time at the aid stations at IMC this year. Even the best ones will lose their discipline in hot races.